Chinese Super LeagueMatchday 28
Henan Songshan Longmen vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 2d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%49%O2.553%44%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1:2Henan Songshan LongmenW
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1:0Henan Songshan LongmenL
- Henan Songshan Longmen3:4Tianjin Jinmen TigerL
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger1:0Henan Songshan LongmenL
- Henan Songshan Longmen1:2Tianjin Jinmen TigerL
Henan Songshan Longmen's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 10.1under 10.5: 60%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 10.1 on average in the league.In this league 59% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.9over 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.8 : 1.0total 2.8Attack/defence1.4 : 1.0total 2.4
Henan Songshan Longmen : Tianjin Jinmen TigerMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-010%2-110%2-010%0-07%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-012%2-19%2-09%0-09%0-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-010%1-012%2-12-110%2-19%2-02-010%2-09%0-00-07%0-09%0-10-1—0-19%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 79%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%77% | 77% |
| 1 – Henan Songshan Longmen win | 55%45% · Elo 40% | 45%· Elo 40% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54%49% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%44% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: no | 46%51% | 51% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 45%55% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%23% | 23% |
| X – draw | 24%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%30% | 30% |
| 2 – Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win | 21%27% · Elo 31% | 27%· Elo 31% |
Attack vs defence
Henan Songshan Longmen attack vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger defenceattack1478defence1562−84 pts to the attack
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger attack vs Henan Songshan Longmen defenceattack1440defence1553−113 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 52%close to the league averageunderover 48%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.561%59%
8.548%52%
9.536%42%
10.525%31%
Each team on its own
Henan Songshan Longmenwe expect 4.9, league average 5.0 · chance of over 4.5: 54%
Tianjin Jinmen Tigerwe expect 3.5, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 46%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 72%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 28%
We expect 20.6 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.535%52%
23.528%45%
24.523%39%
25.518%32%
Each team on its own
Henan Songshan Longmenwe expect 9.9, league average 11.3 · chance of over 11.5: 30%
Tianjin Jinmen Tigerwe expect 10.4, league average 12.0 · chance of over 11.5: 36%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.558%60%
3.536%43%
4.519%27%
5.59%18%
Each team on its own
Henan Songshan Longmenwe expect 1.7, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Tianjin Jinmen Tigerwe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Henan Songshan Longmen5 draws in a rowat home: 4Went on 25%League 27%Model 24%Record 8
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger matches average only 2.7 cards (league 4.1) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Henan Songshan Longmen: no win in 8 matches
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: 20 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger score a lot late on: 16 of 30 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Henan Songshan Longmen: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Tianjin Jinmen Tiger: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
Henan Songshan Longmen
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 37:32 | 28 |
| 13 | Henan Songshan Longmen | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 35:37 | 28 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Henan Songshan Longmen vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger?
Henan Songshan Longmen are the favourites. Chances: Henan Songshan Longmen win 55%, draw 24%, Tianjin Jinmen Tiger win 21%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Henan Songshan Longmen vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Henan Songshan Longmen 1.8, Tianjin Jinmen Tiger 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Henan Songshan Longmen vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger?
The chance that both teams score is 54%.
When is Henan Songshan Longmen vs Tianjin Jinmen Tiger?
The Chinese Super League match kicks off 16 October 2026, 12:35 (UK time).