1. LigaMatchday 12
Plzen vs Pardubice: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 11d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%O2.559%56%|exp. goals 2.0 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Plzen0:1PardubiceL
- Pardubice1:5PlzenW
- Pardubice0:0PlzenD
- Plzen2:0PardubiceW
- Pardubice2:3PlzenW
Plzen's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.9league 9.9over 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.9 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.8over 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 23%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model2.2 : 0.9total 3.1Attack/defence2.0 : 0.9total 2.9
Plzen : PardubiceMost likely scores
Model2-011%1-010%1-110%2-110%3-08%3-1—Attack/defence2-011%1-010%1-110%2-110%3-07%3-17%
ModelAttack/defence2-02-011%2-011%1-01-010%1-010%1-11-110%1-110%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-08%3-07%3-13-1—3-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 87%84% | 84% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 80%79% | 79% |
| 1 – Plzen win | 66%63% · Elo 70% | 63%· Elo 70% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63%66% | 66% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59%56% | 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41%44% | 44% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37%34% | 34% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 34%37% | 37% |
| X – draw | 20%21% · Elo 19% | 21%· Elo 19% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%21% | 21% |
| 2 – Pardubice win | 13%16% · Elo 12% | 16%· Elo 12% |
Attack vs defence
Plzen attack vs Pardubice defenceattack1630defence1459+171 pts to the attack
Pardubice attack vs Plzen defenceattack1423defence1542−119 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%61%
8.544%45%
9.532%31%
10.522%19%
Each team on its own
Plzenwe expect 4.5, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 46%
Pardubicewe expect 3.7, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 51%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 23.0 in this match, 23.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.551%56%
23.544%50%
24.538%44%
25.531%36%
Each team on its own
Plzenwe expect 10.3, league average 11.5 · chance of over 11.5: 34%
Pardubicewe expect 12.7, league average 12.1 · chance of over 12.5: 49%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 74%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 26%
We expect 1.8 in this match, 2.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.553%66%
2.526%37%
3.511%20%
4.54%12%
Each team on its own
Plzenwe expect 0.9, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 22%
Pardubicewe expect 0.8, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 20%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Plzen: only 13 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 19 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Plzen: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Pardubice: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Plzen | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 20:17 | 13 |
| 14 | Pardubice | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9:16 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Plzen vs Pardubice?
Plzen are the favourites. Chances: Plzen win 66%, draw 20%, Pardubice win 13%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Plzen vs Pardubice?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Plzen 2.2, Pardubice 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 59%. Most likely score: 2-0.
When is Plzen vs Pardubice?
The 1. Liga match kicks off 25 October 2026, 17:00 (UK time).