ChampionshipMatchday 9

Preston 0-1 Millwall: prediction, tips and result

·

Preston
1-32-11-20-12-2
0-1Full time(half time 0-0)
Millwall
2-22-21-34-00-3
Stadium:
Deepdale, Preston
Referee:
Ben Speedie

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards – Preston (yellow=1, red=2): Over 1.5Lost59%

Preston: 2.4 card points a match, Millwall's opponents collected 3.1 card points on average, league average 1.7; over 1.5 card points in 6 of their last 8 league matches, Millwall's opponents collected over 1.5 card points in 6 of 8 (54% of league matches); scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Total Goals: Over 2.5Lost55%

    over 2.5 goals in 6 of the hosts' last 8 league matches and 7 of the visitors' last 8 (53% of league matches)

  • Offsides: Over 3.5Lost63%

    our numbers: 4.4 offsides against a league average of 3.7; 4.5 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 4.9 in the visitors', league average 3.7

  • Shots on Target – Preston: Under 4.5Won63%

    Preston: 3.0 shots on target a match, Millwall's opponents had 3.5 on average, league average 4.4

  • Fouls – Preston: Under 9.5Won59%

    our numbers for Preston: 9.0 fouls against a league average of 9.7

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:2Lost9%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloPreston147431%27%Draw27%27%Millwall162242%46%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%54%O2.555%49%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.4not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Preston0:2MillwallL
  2. Millwall1:1PrestonD
  3. Preston1:1MillwallD
  4. Millwall3:1PrestonL
  5. Millwall1:1PrestonD
Preston's record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4over 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end over 10.5 corners.lost · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.8under 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 12%.won · ended 3
RefereeB. Speedie−0.7 yellow cards vs average34 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)69%1X1:2coverageleague 79% · H2H 3/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.6total 2.9Attack/defence1.2 : 1.4total 2.6
Preston : Millwall
Most likely scores
Market1-112%0-18%1-29%1-0—2-18%0-0—0-27%Attack/defence1-113%0-110%1-29%1-09%2-18%0-08%0-2—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%0-10-18%0-110%1-21-29%1-29%1-01-0—1-09%2-12-18%2-18%0-00-0—0-08%0-20-27%0-2—
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals79%74%74%
12 – no draw73%73%73%
X2 – away team avoid defeat69%67%67%
Under 3.5 goals67%73%73%
Both teams to score: yes59%54%54%
1X – home team avoid defeat58%60%60%
Over 2.5 goals55%49%49%
Under 2.5 goals45%51%51%
2 – Millwall win42%40% · Elo 46%40%· Elo 46%
Both teams to score: no41%46%46%
Over 3.5 goals33%27%27%
1 – Preston win31%33% · Elo 27%33%· Elo 27%
X – draw27%27% · Elo 27%27%· Elo 27%
Under 1.5 goals21%26%26%
Attack vs defence
Preston attack vs Millwall defenceattack1437defence1540−103 pts to the attack
Millwall attack vs Preston defenceattack1523defence1431+92 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
6.566%67%
7.553%55%
8.540%39%
9.528%29%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Prestonwe expect 4.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 37%
Millwallwe expect 3.8, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 60%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 19.5 in this match, 20.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.548%57%
20.540%47%
21.533%37%
22.527%33%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Prestonwe expect 9.0, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 41%
Millwallwe expect 11.0, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Referee: 18.5 fouls per match on average (10 matches in our data)−1.1 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 37%over
We expect 4.4 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.580%66%
3.563%48%
4.544%31%
5.528%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Prestonwe expect 1.5, league average 1.9 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Millwallwe expect 3.0, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 77%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Preston concede 2.0 goals per game
  • Preston: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Preston: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Millwall: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Preston

Millwall

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10Millwall1042416:1614
24Preston101188:204
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Preston vs Millwall?

Preston 0-1 Millwall (half time 0-0).

Did the Preston vs Millwall tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards – Preston (yellow=1, red=2): Over 1.5. The tip lost.

See also