League OneMatchday 9
Luton vs Doncaster: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 13d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%O2.555%55%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Doncaster1:1LutonD
- Luton1:0DoncasterW
- Luton4:0DoncasterW
- Doncaster2:1LutonL
- Doncaster1:1LutonD
Luton's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 10.5under 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 10.5 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 3.7over 3.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.8 : 1.1total 2.9Attack/defence1.8 : 1.1total 2.9
Luton : DoncasterMost likely scores
Model1-111%1-010%2-110%2-09%0-16%1-2—0-0—Attack/defence1-111%1-010%2-110%2-09%0-1—1-26%0-06%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%1-01-010%1-010%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-09%0-10-16%0-1—1-21-2—1-26%0-00-0—0-06%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%78% | 78% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 77%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68%68% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55%55% | 55% |
| 1 – Luton win | 54%53% · Elo 59% | 53%· Elo 59% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 46%47% | 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46%45% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32%32% | 32% |
| X – draw | 23%24% · Elo 23% | 24%· Elo 23% |
| 2 – Doncaster win | 23%23% · Elo 18% | 23%· Elo 18% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Luton attack vs Doncaster defenceattack1585defence1496+89 pts to the attack
Doncaster attack vs Luton defenceattack1431defence1491−60 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Luton matches average 5.4 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Luton played 3 days ago
- Doncaster played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Luton | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 16:15 | 11 |
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:9 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Luton vs Doncaster?
Luton are the favourites. Chances: Luton win 54%, draw 23%, Doncaster win 23%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Luton vs Doncaster?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Luton 1.8, Doncaster 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 55%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Luton vs Doncaster?
The League One match kicks off 27 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).