League TwoMatchday 12
Barnet vs Swindon: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 6d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%O2.562%55%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Barnet1:2SwindonL
- Swindon0:2BarnetW
- Barnet1:2SwindonL
- Swindon1:4BarnetW
- Barnet0:2SwindonL
Barnet's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.5league 9.9over 9.5: 59%Expected corners: 10.5 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.7under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.9 : 1.2total 3.2Attack/defence1.8 : 1.1total 2.9
Barnet : SwindonMost likely scores
Model1-110%2-110%1-08%2-08%3-16%1-2—0-1—Attack/defence1-111%2-110%1-010%2-09%3-1—1-26%0-16%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%2-12-110%2-110%1-01-08%1-010%2-02-08%2-09%3-13-16%3-1—1-21-2—1-26%0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 78%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 76%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62%55% | 55% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61%68% | 68% |
| 1 – Barnet win | 54%52% · Elo 53% | 52%· Elo 53% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 46%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39%32% | 32% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%45% | 45% |
| 2 – Swindon win | 24%24% · Elo 22% | 24%· Elo 22% |
| X – draw | 22%24% · Elo 25% | 24%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Barnet attack vs Swindon defenceattack1635defence1478+157 pts to the attack
Swindon attack vs Barnet defenceattack1515defence1507+8 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 7.5 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.561%61%
7.547%45%
8.534%27%
9.523%17%
Each team on its own
Barnetwe expect 4.7, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Swindonwe expect 3.0, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 36%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 62%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 38%
We expect 19.2 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.546%61%
20.538%57%
21.531%51%
22.525%45%
Each team on its own
Barnetwe expect 8.4, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 24%
Swindonwe expect 10.6, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 49%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 53%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.573%58%
3.553%41%
4.534%28%
5.519%11%
Each team on its own
Barnetwe expect 2.0, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 58%
Swindonwe expect 1.9, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 56%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Barnet score 2.8 goals per game
- Swindon matches average only 2.4 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Barnet: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Swindon matches average 12.1 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Barnet: unbeaten in 17 matches
- Barnet: 24 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 17 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Barnet: 3 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Swindon: 3 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnet | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20:11 | 18 |
| 17 | Swindon | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:14 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Barnet vs Swindon?
Barnet are the favourites. Chances: Barnet win 54%, draw 22%, Swindon win 24%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Barnet vs Swindon?
Expected goals: 3.2 (Barnet 1.9, Swindon 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 62%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Barnet vs Swindon?
The League Two match kicks off 20 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).