League TwoMatchday 11
Swindon vs Walsall: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 3d 5hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%50%O2.558%44%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Swindon2:1WalsallW
- Walsall2:1SwindonL
- Walsall0:1SwindonW
- Swindon0:4WalsallL
- Walsall2:1SwindonL
Swindon's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.6league 9.9over 9.5: 61%Expected corners: 10.6 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.7under 3.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.5total 3.0Attack/defence1.3 : 1.1total 2.4
Swindon : WalsallMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-07%0-17%0-0—1-29%2-18%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-110%0-09%1-2—2-18%2-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-07%1-011%0-10-17%0-110%0-00-0—0-09%1-21-29%1-2—2-12-18%2-18%2-02-0—2-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%72% | 72% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%77% | 77% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 64%60% | 60% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 62%68% | 68% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61%50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58%44% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%56% | 56% |
| Both teams to score: no | 39%50% | 50% |
| 2 – Walsall win | 38%32% · Elo 34% | 32%· Elo 34% |
| 1 – Swindon win | 36%40% · Elo 39% | 40%· Elo 39% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%23% | 23% |
| X – draw | 26%28% · Elo 28% | 28%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%30% | 30% |
Attack vs defence
Swindon attack vs Walsall defenceattack1515defence1518−3 pts to the attack
Walsall attack vs Swindon defenceattack1491defence1478+13 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 7.2 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.558%61%
7.544%45%
8.531%27%
9.520%17%
Each team on its own
Swindonwe expect 4.3, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Walsallwe expect 2.9, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 33%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 18.4 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.539%61%
20.532%57%
21.526%51%
22.520%45%
Each team on its own
Swindonwe expect 9.8, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 40%
Walsallwe expect 8.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 22%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 76%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 24%
We expect 2.5 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.545%58%
3.524%41%
4.511%28%
5.54%11%
Each team on its own
Swindonwe expect 1.1, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 30%
Walsallwe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Walsall4 draws in a row awayoverall: 2Went on 28%League 35%Model 26%Record 6
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Swindon matches average only 2.4 cards (league 3.8) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Swindon matches average 12.1 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Walsall matches average 12.0 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Walsall: unbeaten in 9 matches
- Swindon score a lot late on: 8 of 20 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Swindon: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Walsall: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Walsall | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12:6 | 15 |
| 17 | Swindon | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:14 | 11 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Swindon vs Walsall?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Swindon win 36%, draw 26%, Walsall win 38%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Swindon vs Walsall?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Swindon 1.5, Walsall 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Swindon vs Walsall?
The chance that both teams score is 61%.
When is Swindon vs Walsall?
The League Two match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).