League TwoMatchday 12
Chesterfield vs Colchester: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 6d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%O2.547%44%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Chesterfield3:0ColchesterW
- Colchester6:2ChesterfieldL
- Colchester1:0ChesterfieldL
- Chesterfield1:1ColchesterD
- Chesterfield0:0ColchesterD
Chesterfield's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.7under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.1total 2.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.0total 2.5
Chesterfield : ColchesterMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-012%2-19%0-0—2-09%0-18%Attack/defence1-113%1-012%2-19%0-09%2-09%0-19%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-012%1-012%2-12-19%2-19%0-00-0—0-09%2-02-09%2-09%0-10-18%0-19%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 75%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 73%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%70% | 70% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%56% | 56% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 53%54% | 54% |
| 1 – Chesterfield win | 47%46% · Elo 47% | 46%· Elo 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%44% | 44% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%30% | 30% |
| 2 – Colchester win | 27%27% · Elo 26% | 27%· Elo 26% |
| X – draw | 26%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Chesterfield attack vs Colchester defenceattack1577defence1532+45 pts to the attack
Colchester attack vs Chesterfield defenceattack1490defence1533−43 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 7.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 8.1 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.569%61%
7.555%45%
8.542%27%
9.530%17%
Each team on its own
Chesterfieldwe expect 5.9, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 68%
Colchesterwe expect 2.9, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 33%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 64%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 18.9 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.544%61%
20.536%57%
21.529%51%
22.523%45%
Each team on its own
Chesterfieldwe expect 9.0, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 31%
Colchesterwe expect 9.7, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 38%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 67%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 33%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.555%58%
3.533%41%
4.517%28%
5.58%11%
Each team on its own
Chesterfieldwe expect 1.4, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Colchesterwe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 41%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Colchester concede a lot late on: 10 of 23 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Chesterfield played 3 days ago
- Colchester played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10:13 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chesterfield vs Colchester?
Chesterfield are the favourites. Chances: Chesterfield win 47%, draw 26%, Colchester win 27%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Chesterfield vs Colchester?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Chesterfield 1.5, Colchester 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Chesterfield vs Colchester?
The League Two match kicks off 20 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).