League TwoMatchday 11
Colchester vs Exeter: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%44%O2.549%37%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Exeter2:0ColchesterL
- Colchester3:1ExeterW
- Colchester1:2ExeterL
- Exeter6:1ColchesterL
- Exeter2:1ColchesterL
Colchester's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses3.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.7under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.1total 2.6Attack/defence1.2 : 1.0total 2.2
Colchester : ExeterMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-010%0-08%0-1—2-19%2-08%Attack/defence1-114%1-013%0-012%0-111%2-18%2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-114%1-01-010%1-013%0-00-08%0-012%0-10-1—0-111%2-12-19%2-18%2-02-08%2-08%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%64% | 64% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%70% | 70% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%83% | 83% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 71%69% | 69% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 54%62% | 62% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54%44% | 44% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51%63% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49%37% | 37% |
| Both teams to score: no | 46%56% | 56% |
| 1 – Colchester win | 45%39% · Elo 31% | 39%· Elo 31% |
| 2 – Exeter win | 28%31% · Elo 42% | 31%· Elo 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%17% | 17% |
| X – draw | 26%30% · Elo 28% | 30%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%36% | 36% |
Attack vs defence
Colchester attack vs Exeter defenceattack1490defence1562−72 pts to the attack
Exeter attack vs Colchester defenceattack1479defence1532−53 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 7.1 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.556%61%
7.542%45%
8.529%27%
9.519%17%
Each team on its own
Colchesterwe expect 3.7, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 32%
Exeterwe expect 3.2, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 39%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 55%close to the league averageunder 45%over
We expect 21.5 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.562%61%
20.555%57%
21.548%51%
22.541%45%
Each team on its own
Colchesterwe expect 10.6, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 49%
Exeterwe expect 11.0, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 36%
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.557%58%
3.536%41%
4.519%28%
5.59%11%
Each team on its own
Colchesterwe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Exeterwe expect 1.4, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Exeter7 matches in a row under 2.5 goalsaway: 3Went on 55%League 57%Model 51%Record 16
- Exeter6 matches in a row without BTTSaway: 3Went on 51%League 47%Model 46%Record 12
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Exeter: only 1 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Exeter concede only 0.6 goals per game
- Exeter score only 0.6 goals per game
- Colchester concede a lot late on: 10 of 23 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Exeter: newly promoted
- Colchester: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Exeter: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Exeter | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6:6 | 12 |
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10:13 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Colchester vs Exeter?
Colchester are the favourites. Chances: Colchester win 45%, draw 26%, Exeter win 28%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Colchester vs Exeter?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Colchester 1.5, Exeter 1.1). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Exeter?
The chance that both teams score is 54%.
When is Colchester vs Exeter?
The League Two match kicks off 17 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).