League TwoMatchday 12
Exeter vs Crewe: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 6d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS44%O2.527%37%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Exeter1:1CreweD
- Crewe1:1ExeterD
- Crewe1:2ExeterW
- Exeter1:0CreweW
- Crewe1:2ExeterW
Exeter's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.9over 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.7under 3.5: 50%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.0 : 0.9total 1.8Attack/defence1.2 : 1.0total 2.2
Exeter : CreweMost likely scores
Model0-017%1-016%0-114%1-113%2-08%2-1—Attack/defence0-012%1-013%0-111%1-114%2-08%2-18%
ModelAttack/defence0-00-017%0-012%1-01-016%1-013%0-10-114%0-111%1-11-113%1-114%2-02-08%2-08%2-12-1—2-18%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 89%83% | 83% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 73%63% | 63% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 69%70% | 70% |
| 12 – no draw | 67%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 64%60% | 60% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54%64% | 64% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 46%36% | 36% |
| 1 – Exeter win | 36%40% · Elo 49% | 40%· Elo 49% |
| X – draw | 33%30% · Elo 26% | 30%· Elo 26% |
| 2 – Crewe win | 31%30% · Elo 25% | 30%· Elo 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27%37% | 37% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11%17% | 17% |
Attack vs defence
Exeter attack vs Crewe defenceattack1479defence1531−52 pts to the attack
Crewe attack vs Exeter defenceattack1496defence1562−66 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 7.0 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.554%61%
7.539%45%
8.527%27%
9.517%17%
Each team on its own
Exeterwe expect 4.3, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 42%
Crewewe expect 2.6, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 26%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 63%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 38%over
We expect 22.6 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.569%61%
20.563%57%
21.556%51%
22.548%45%
Each team on its own
Exeterwe expect 10.2, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Crewewe expect 12.7, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 69%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.565%58%
3.543%41%
4.525%28%
5.513%11%
Each team on its own
Exeterwe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Crewewe expect 2.1, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 60%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Exeter: only 1 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Crewe: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Exeter concede only 0.6 goals per game
- Exeter score only 0.6 goals per game
- Crewe: unbeaten in 11 matches
- Exeter: newly promoted
- Exeter: 3 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Crewe: 3 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12:7 | 18 |
| 14 | Exeter | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6:6 | 12 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Exeter vs Crewe?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Exeter win 36%, draw 33%, Crewe win 31%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Exeter vs Crewe?
Expected goals: 1.8 (Exeter 1.0, Crewe 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 27%. Most likely score: 0-0.
When is Exeter vs Crewe?
The League Two match kicks off 20 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).