League TwoMatchday 13
Northampton vs Colchester: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS45%O2.531%38%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Colchester0:1NorthamptonW
- Northampton3:2ColchesterW
- Northampton3:0ColchesterW
- Colchester0:1NorthamptonW
- Colchester1:0NorthamptonL
Northampton's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9under 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 44% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.7under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.0 : 1.0total 2.0Attack/defence1.2 : 1.0total 2.2
Northampton : ColchesterMost likely scores
Model0-014%0-114%1-014%1-114%2-1—2-0—0-27%Attack/defence0-011%0-111%1-013%1-114%2-18%2-08%0-2—
ModelAttack/defence0-00-014%0-011%0-10-114%0-111%1-01-014%1-013%1-11-114%1-114%2-12-1—2-18%2-02-0—2-08%0-20-27%0-2—
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 87%82% | 82% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 69%62% | 62% |
| 12 – no draw | 69%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 66%60% | 60% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 66%69% | 69% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58%65% | 65% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 42%35% | 35% |
| 2 – Colchester win | 35%31% · Elo 32% | 31%· Elo 32% |
| 1 – Northampton win | 34%40% · Elo 41% | 40%· Elo 41% |
| X – draw | 31%30% · Elo 28% | 30%· Elo 28% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31%38% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13%18% | 18% |
Attack vs defence
Northampton attack vs Colchester defenceattack1479defence1532−53 pts to the attack
Colchester attack vs Northampton defenceattack1490defence1540−50 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 7.4 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.560%61%
7.546%45%
8.533%27%
9.522%17%
Each team on its own
Northamptonwe expect 4.7, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 49%
Colchesterwe expect 2.9, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 33%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 57%close to the league averageunder 43%over
We expect 21.7 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.564%61%
20.557%57%
21.550%51%
22.542%45%
Each team on its own
Northamptonwe expect 11.6, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 60%
Colchesterwe expect 10.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 64%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.559%58%
3.537%41%
4.520%28%
5.59%11%
Each team on its own
Northamptonwe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Colchesterwe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 49%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Colchester concede a lot late on: 10 of 23 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Northampton: newly promoted
- Northampton: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
- Colchester: 4 days since the last match, 3 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Colchester | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10:13 | 10 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4:7 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Northampton vs Colchester?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Northampton win 34%, draw 31%, Colchester win 35%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Northampton vs Colchester?
Expected goals: 2.0 (Northampton 1.0, Colchester 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 31%. Most likely score: 0-0.
When is Northampton vs Colchester?
The League Two match kicks off 24 October 2026, 12:30 (UK time).