League TwoMatchday 12
Northampton vs Tranmere: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 6d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%O2.537%46%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Tranmere0:1NorthamptonW
- Northampton0:0TranmereD
- Northampton3:2TranmereW
- Tranmere0:2NorthamptonW
- Tranmere1:2NorthamptonW
Northampton's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.7league 9.9over 9.5: 50%Expected corners: 9.7 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.7over 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 14%.
Refereeno referee data
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.2 : 0.9total 2.2Attack/defence1.5 : 1.0total 2.5
Northampton : TranmereMost likely scores
Model1-014%1-113%0-011%0-111%2-09%2-1—Attack/defence1-012%1-113%0-09%0-18%2-010%2-19%
ModelAttack/defence1-01-014%1-012%1-11-113%1-113%0-00-011%0-09%0-10-111%0-18%2-02-09%2-010%2-12-1—2-19%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 goals | 82%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 72%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 71%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64%71% | 71% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 63%54% | 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 57%50% | 50% |
| 1 – Northampton win | 43%50% · Elo 52% | 50%· Elo 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37%46% | 46% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 36%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 29%26% · Elo 25% | 26%· Elo 25% |
| 2 – Tranmere win | 28%23% · Elo 23% | 23%· Elo 23% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Northampton attack vs Tranmere defenceattack1479defence1393+86 pts to the attack
Tranmere attack vs Northampton defenceattack1460defence1540−80 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 7.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 7.3 in this match, 7.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.6.558%61%
7.544%45%
8.531%27%
9.521%17%
Each team on its own
Northamptonwe expect 4.4, league average 4.2 · chance of over 4.5: 45%
Tranmerewe expect 2.9, league average 3.1 · chance of over 3.5: 33%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 58%close to the league averageunder 42%over
We expect 22.0 in this match, 20.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.565%61%
20.558%57%
21.551%51%
22.544%45%
Each team on its own
Northamptonwe expect 11.4, league average 10.2 · chance of over 10.5: 58%
Tranmerewe expect 10.6, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 49%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.563%58%
3.541%41%
4.524%28%
5.512%11%
Each team on its own
Northamptonwe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Tranmerewe expect 1.8, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 52%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Tranmere concede a lot late on: 11 of 27 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Northampton: newly promoted
- Northampton played 3 days ago
- Tranmere played 3 days ago
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 13:13 | 12 |
| 23 | Northampton | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4:7 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Northampton vs Tranmere?
Northampton are the favourites. Chances: Northampton win 43%, draw 29%, Tranmere win 28%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Northampton vs Tranmere?
Expected goals: 2.2 (Northampton 1.2, Tranmere 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 37%. Most likely score: 1-0.
When is Northampton vs Tranmere?
The League Two match kicks off 20 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).