Premier LeagueMatchday 8
Arsenal vs Everton: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS45%46%O2.553%46%|exp. goals 1.7 : 0.8
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Arsenal2:0EvertonW
- Everton0:1ArsenalW
- Everton1:1ArsenalD
- Arsenal0:0EvertonD
- Arsenal2:1EvertonW
Arsenal's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses1.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.6league 9.9under 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.6 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.8league 3.8over 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.8 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.1 : 0.7total 2.8Attack/defence1.7 : 0.8total 2.5
Arsenal : EvertonMost likely scores
Market2-014%1-012%1-110%2-19%3-09%0-0—Attack/defence2-012%1-014%1-112%2-110%3-07%0-09%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-014%2-012%1-01-012%1-014%1-11-110%1-112%2-12-19%2-110%3-03-09%3-07%0-00-0—0-09%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 89%82% | 82% |
| 12 – no draw | 81%75% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%71% | 71% |
| 1 – Arsenal win | 70%58% · Elo 73% | 58%· Elo 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%76% | 76% |
| Both teams to score: no | 55%54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%46% | 46% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45%46% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%24% | 24% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 30%42% | 42% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 19%25% · Elo 17% | 25%· Elo 17% |
| 2 – Everton win | 11%18% · Elo 10% | 18%· Elo 10% |
Attack vs defence
Arsenal attack vs Everton defenceattack1578defence1525+53 pts to the attack
Everton attack vs Arsenal defenceattack1448defence1690−242 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.553%57%
8.540%45%
9.528%32%
10.519%21%
Each team on its own
Arsenalwe expect 4.3, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Evertonwe expect 3.4, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 45%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 50%close to the league averageunderover 50%
We expect 21.8 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.557%52%
21.550%46%
22.543%36%
23.536%30%
Each team on its own
Arsenalwe expect 9.7, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 38%
Evertonwe expect 12.2, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 65%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 67%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 33%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.555%63%
3.533%43%
4.517%23%
5.58%13%
Each team on its own
Arsenalwe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Evertonwe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Arsenal concede only 0.6 goals per game
- Arsenal matches average only 7.4 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Arsenal: 27 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 22 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Everton concede a lot late on: 12 of 28 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Arsenal: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Everton: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | 15 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:5 | 10 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Arsenal vs Everton?
Arsenal are the favourites. Chances: Arsenal win 70%, draw 19%, Everton win 11%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Everton?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Arsenal 2.1, Everton 0.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Everton?
The chance that both teams score is 45%.
When is Arsenal vs Everton?
The Premier League match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:00 (UK time).