Premier LeagueMatchday 7
Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS48%50%O2.550%45%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Nott'm Forest0:0ArsenalD
- Arsenal3:0Nott'm ForestL
- Nott'm Forest0:0ArsenalD
- Arsenal3:0Nott'm ForestL
- Nott'm Forest1:2ArsenalL
Nott'm Forest's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.9under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.8over 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.8 : 1.8total 2.6Attack/defence1.1 : 1.4total 2.5
Nott'm Forest : ArsenalMost likely scores
Market1-111%0-112%0-212%1-210%0-08%1-0—Attack/defence1-113%0-112%0-29%1-29%0-09%1-09%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-113%0-10-112%0-112%0-20-212%0-29%1-21-210%1-29%0-00-08%0-09%1-01-0—1-09%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 84%72% | 72% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76%70% | 70% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%77% | 77% |
| 2 – Arsenal win | 61%45% · Elo 62% | 45%· Elo 62% |
| Both teams to score: no | 52%50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%45% | 45% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48%50% | 50% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 39%55% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%23% | 23% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24%30% | 30% |
| X – draw | 23%27% · Elo 22% | 27%· Elo 22% |
| 1 – Nott'm Forest win | 16%28% · Elo 16% | 28%· Elo 16% |
Attack vs defence
Nott'm Forest attack vs Arsenal defenceattack1486defence1690−204 pts to the attack
Arsenal attack vs Nott'm Forest defenceattack1578defence1521+57 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 8.0 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.554%57%
8.541%45%
9.529%32%
10.519%21%
Each team on its own
Nott'm Forestwe expect 3.7, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 31%
Arsenalwe expect 4.1, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 57%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 22.6 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.563%52%
21.556%46%
22.549%36%
23.542%30%
Each team on its own
Nott'm Forestwe expect 12.5, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 68%
Arsenalwe expect 10.2, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 44%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.566%63%
3.544%43%
4.526%23%
5.514%13%
Each team on its own
Nott'm Forestwe expect 1.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Arsenalwe expect 2.0, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 58%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Arsenal concede only 0.6 goals per game
- Arsenal matches average only 7.4 corners (league 9.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Arsenal: 27 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 22 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Nott'm Forest: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Arsenal: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | 15 |
| 15 | Nott'm Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | 5 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are the favourites. Chances: Nott'm Forest win 16%, draw 23%, Arsenal win 61%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Nott'm Forest 0.8, Arsenal 1.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 0-1.
Will both teams score in Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal?
The chance that both teams score is 48%.
When is Nott'm Forest vs Arsenal?
The Premier League match kicks off 18 October 2026, 16:30 (UK time).