Premier LeagueMatchday 6

Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford: prediction, tips and result

·

Aston Villa
0-40-10-01-23-2
2-2Full time(half time 1-1)
Brentford
3-02-21-11-13-0
Stadium:
Villa Park, Birmingham
Referee:
Craig Pawson

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Lost69%

referee Craig Pawson averages 3.0 card points a match, league average 4.0; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Offsides – Brentford: Over 1.5Lost61%

    Aston Villa's opponents were caught offside 5.0 times on average, league average 1.6; our numbers for Brentford: 2.1 offsides against a league average of 1.6

  • Fouls – Aston Villa: Under 9.5Won61%

    our numbers for Aston Villa: 8.8 fouls against a league average of 10.3; Brentford's opponents committed under 9.5 in 4 of 5 (41% of league matches)

  • Shots on Target – Brentford: Over 3.5Won56%

    Brentford: 4.4 shots on target a match, Aston Villa's opponents had 5.4 on average, league average 3.8

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.5Lost32%

referee Craig Pawson averages 3.0 card points a match, league average 4.0; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloAston Villa211236%50%Draw26%26%Brentford204637%24%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS61%58%O2.557%55%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.4both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Aston Villa0:1BrentfordL
  2. Brentford1:0Aston VillaL
  3. Brentford0:1Aston VillaW
  4. Aston Villa3:1BrentfordW
  5. Aston Villa3:3BrentfordD
Aston Villa's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.0league 9.9over 9.5: 53%Expected corners: 10.0 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end over 9.5 corners.lost · ended 4
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.8under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 43% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.lost · ended 7
RefereeC. Pawson−1.0 yellow cards vs average26 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)70%O2.51:1coverageleague 68% · H2H 2/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.5total 3.0Attack/defence1.5 : 1.4total 2.9
Aston Villa : Brentford
Most likely scores
Market1-112%2-18%1-07%1-28%0-17%2-0—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-08%1-28%0-18%2-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%2-12-18%2-19%1-01-07%1-08%1-21-28%1-28%0-10-17%0-18%2-02-0—2-06%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals81%78%78%
12 – no draw73%74%74%
Under 3.5 goals65%68%68%
X2 – away team avoid defeat63%60%60%
1X – home team avoid defeat62%66%66%
Both teams to score: yes61%58%58%
Over 2.5 goals57%55%55%
Under 2.5 goals43%45%45%
Both teams to score: no39%42%42%
2 – Brentford win37%34% · Elo 24%34%· Elo 24%
1 – Aston Villa win36%40% · Elo 50%40%· Elo 50%
Over 3.5 goals35%32%32%
X – draw26%26% · Elo 26%26%· Elo 26%
Under 1.5 goals19%22%22%
Attack vs defence
Aston Villa attack vs Brentford defenceattack1495defence1499−4 pts to the attack
Brentford attack vs Aston Villa defenceattack1540defence1495+45 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.560%57%
8.547%45%
9.535%32%
10.524%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Aston Villawe expect 4.5, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 47%
Brentfordwe expect 4.1, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 20.1 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
19.552%58%
20.545%52%
21.538%46%
22.531%37%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Aston Villawe expect 8.8, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 28%
Brentfordwe expect 11.0, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 53%
Referee: 20.8 fouls per match on average (26 matches in our data)+0.3 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.570%63%
3.549%43%
4.530%23%
5.517%13%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Aston Villawe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Brentfordwe expect 2.1, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 61%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form

Aston Villa

Brentford

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Brentford624012:610
16Aston Villa61236:115
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford (half time 1-1).

Did the Aston Villa vs Brentford tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5. The tip lost.

See also