Premier LeagueMatchday 7
Bournemouth vs Sunderland: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%55%O2.553%53%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Bournemouth1:1SunderlandD
- Sunderland3:2BournemouthL
- Sunderland0:1BournemouthW
- Bournemouth1:2SunderlandL
- Sunderland1:1BournemouthD
Bournemouth's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.6league 9.9under 9.5: 51%Expected corners: 9.6 in this match, 9.9 on average in the league.In this league 46% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.8over 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.8 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 11%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 1.2total 2.8Attack/defence1.7 : 1.1total 2.8
Bournemouth : SunderlandMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-09%2-19%2-08%0-07%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-110%2-09%0-06%0-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-01-09%1-010%2-12-19%2-110%2-02-08%2-09%0-00-07%0-06%0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%77% | 77% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 74%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 69%69% | 69% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57%55% | 55% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 54%48% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53%53% | 53% |
| 1 – Bournemouth win | 47%52% · Elo 64% | 52%· Elo 64% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 43%45% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31%31% | 31% |
| X – draw | 27%24% · Elo 21% | 24%· Elo 21% |
| 2 – Sunderland win | 27%24% · Elo 15% | 24%· Elo 15% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Bournemouth attack vs Sunderland defenceattack1510defence1442+68 pts to the attack
Sunderland attack vs Bournemouth defenceattack1410defence1496−86 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 62%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 38%
We expect 7.8 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.552%57%
8.538%45%
9.527%32%
10.518%21%
Each team on its own
Bournemouthwe expect 4.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Sunderlandwe expect 3.4, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 43%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 22.4 in this match, 21.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.561%52%
21.554%46%
22.547%36%
23.540%30%
Each team on its own
Bournemouthwe expect 11.6, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 59%
Sunderlandwe expect 10.9, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 52%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 66%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 34%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.556%63%
3.534%43%
4.518%23%
5.58%13%
Each team on its own
Bournemouthwe expect 1.3, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Sunderlandwe expect 1.5, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Sunderland7 matches in a row with BTTS awayWent on 55%League 55%Model 57%Record 20
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Bournemouth: no win in 8 matches
- Bournemouth: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Sunderland: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7:13 | 3 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Bournemouth are the favourites. Chances: Bournemouth win 47%, draw 27%, Sunderland win 27%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Bournemouth 1.6, Sunderland 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 53%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
The chance that both teams score is 57%.
When is Bournemouth vs Sunderland?
The Premier League match kicks off 18 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).