Ligue 1Matchday 6

Lille 1-0 Le Havre: prediction, tips and result

·

Lille
2-02-21-02-01-2
1-0Full time(half time 1-0)
Le Havre
2-30-01-21-10-1
Stadium:
Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille
Referee:
Bastein Dechepy

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5Lost55%

under 4.5 card points in 5 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 5 (62% of league matches); 2.6 card points a match in the hosts' matches, 3.4 in the visitors', league average 4.1; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Match Result: LilleWon67%

    Le Havre: winless in their last 5 league matches

  • Offsides: Over 3.5Won61%

    our numbers: 4.3 offsides against a league average of 3.4; over 3.5 offsides in 4 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 3 of the visitors' last 5 (43% of league matches)

  • Shots on Target – Lille: Over 4.5Lost60%

    our numbers for Lille: 5.3 shots on target against a league average of 4.7; Lille: over 4.5 shots on target in 4 of their last 5 league matches, Le Havre's opponents had over 4.5 in 3 of 5 (48% of league matches)

For the brave
Correct Score: 2:0Lost11%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloLille189767%64%Draw19%21%Le Havre169314%15%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%47%O2.559%46%|exp. goals 1.7 : 0.9not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Lille1:1Le HavreD
  2. Le Havre0:1LilleW
  3. Lille1:2Le HavreL
  4. Le Havre0:3LilleW
  5. Lille3:0Le HavreW
Lille's record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.5league 9.6under 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.5 in this match, 9.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 9
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 3.6over 3.5: 57%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.won · ended 4
RefereeB. Dechepy+0.9 yellow cards vs average20 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)71%O2.52:0coverageleague 62% · H2H 3/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.2 : 0.9total 3.1Attack/defence1.7 : 0.9total 2.5
Lille : Le Havre
Most likely scores
Market1-010%1-110%2-011%2-110%0-0—3-08%0-1—Attack/defence1-013%1-112%2-011%2-110%0-09%3-0—0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-01-010%1-013%1-11-110%1-112%2-02-011%2-011%2-12-110%2-110%0-00-0—0-09%3-03-08%3-0—0-10-1—0-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat86%81%81%
Over 1.5 goals82%71%71%
12 – no draw81%75%75%
1 – Lille win67%56% · Elo 64%56%· Elo 64%
Under 3.5 goals64%76%76%
Over 2.5 goals59%46%46%
Both teams to score: yes52%47%47%
Both teams to score: no48%53%53%
Under 2.5 goals41%54%54%
Over 3.5 goals36%24%24%
X2 – away team avoid defeat33%44%44%
X – draw19%25% · Elo 21%25%· Elo 21%
Under 1.5 goals18%29%29%
2 – Le Havre win14%19% · Elo 15%19%· Elo 15%
Attack vs defence
Lille attack vs Le Havre defenceattack1518defence1464+54 pts to the attack
Le Havre attack vs Lille defenceattack1407defence1607−200 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 49%
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.562%59%
8.549%48%
9.537%37%
10.526%28%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lillewe expect 5.3, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 60%
Le Havrewe expect 3.5, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 46%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 22.4 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.561%53%
21.554%47%
22.547%41%
23.540%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lillewe expect 10.4, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 46%
Le Havrewe expect 11.7, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 60%
Referee: 22.2 fouls per match on average (20 matches in our data)+0.7 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 39%over
We expect 4.3 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.579%63%
3.561%43%
4.542%26%
5.526%14%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Lillewe expect 2.1, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 60%
Le Havrewe expect 2.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 65%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Lille: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Lille: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Le Havre: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Lille

Le Havre

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Lille64119:413
18Le Havre60244:82
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Lille vs Le Havre?

Lille 1-0 Le Havre (half time 1-0).

Did the Lille vs Le Havre tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 4.5. The tip lost.

See also