Premier DivisionMatchday 35

Galway vs St. Patricks: prediction, tips and stats

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Galway
1-12-33-10-11-1
1.1:1.4Pre-match
St. Patricks
1-04-02-00-22-0

Our tips

Tip in 9d 9h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloGalway133425%25%Draw32%28%St. Patricks148743%46%
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%O2.536%45%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. St. Patricks3:0GalwayL
  2. Galway2:2St. PatricksD
  3. St. Patricks1:0GalwayL
  4. St. Patricks1:1GalwayD
  5. Galway3:1St. PatricksW
Galway's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.2under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.3league 4.3under 4.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.3 in this match, 4.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeno referee data

Prediction: result and goals

Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model0.9 : 1.2total 2.1Attack/defence1.1 : 1.4total 2.5
Galway : St. Patricks
Most likely scores
Model1-115%0-013%0-113%0-29%1-09%1-2—Attack/defence1-113%0-09%0-112%0-29%1-09%1-29%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-115%1-113%0-00-013%0-09%0-10-113%0-112%0-20-29%0-29%1-01-09%1-09%1-21-2—1-29%
OutcomeModelAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals83%76%76%
X2 – away team avoid defeat75%72%72%
12 – no draw68%73%73%
Under 2.5 goals64%55%55%
Over 1.5 goals64%71%71%
1X – home team avoid defeat57%55%55%
2 – St. Patricks win43%45% · Elo 46%45%· Elo 46%
Under 1.5 goals36%29%29%
Over 2.5 goals36%45%45%
X – draw32%27% · Elo 28%27%· Elo 28%
1 – Galway win25%28% · Elo 25%28%· Elo 25%
Over 3.5 goals17%24%24%
Attack vs defence
Galway attack vs St. Patricks defenceattack1456defence1645−189 pts to the attack
St. Patricks attack vs Galway defenceattack1551defence1449+102 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.552%60%
8.539%46%
9.527%30%
10.518%22%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Galwaywe expect 3.8, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
St. Patrickswe expect 3.6, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 48%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 21.8 in this match, 21.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.557%53%
21.550%49%
22.543%44%
23.536%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Galwaywe expect 11.8, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 61%
St. Patrickswe expect 10.0, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 42%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.579%78%
2.556%49%
3.534%34%
4.518%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Galwaywe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
St. Patrickswe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 48%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • St. Patricks concede only 0.6 goals per game
  • Galway: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
  • St. Patricks: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Galway

St. Patricks

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2St. Patricks32178752:2559
7Galway329111242:4838
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Galway vs St. Patricks?

St. Patricks are the favourites. Chances: Galway win 25%, draw 32%, St. Patricks win 43%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.

How many goals will there be in Galway vs St. Patricks?

Expected goals: 2.1 (Galway 0.9, St. Patricks 1.2). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 36%. Most likely score: 1-1.

When is Galway vs St. Patricks?

The Premier Division match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:45 (UK time).

See also