Premier DivisionMatchday 33

Derry City vs St. Patricks: prediction, tips and stats

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Derry City
3-53-31-02-21-0
1.2:1.1Pre-match
St. Patricks
1-04-02-00-22-0

Our tips

Tip in 5d 11h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloDerry City141630%33%Draw28%30%St. Patricks148742%37%
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%47%O2.549%41%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. St. Patricks1:1Derry CityD
  2. Derry City0:0St. PatricksD
  3. St. Patricks0:0Derry CityD
  4. Derry City2:2St. PatricksD
  5. St. Patricks0:1Derry CityW
Derry City's record: 1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses1.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.3league 10.2under 10.5: 55%Expected corners: 10.3 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.2league 4.3under 4.5: 58%Expected yellow cards: 4.2 in this match, 4.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeno referee data

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.4total 2.6Attack/defence1.2 : 1.1total 2.3
Derry City : St. Patricks
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-08%0-19%0-08%1-29%2-1—Attack/defence1-114%1-011%0-111%0-010%1-27%2-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-114%1-01-08%1-011%0-10-19%0-111%0-00-08%0-010%1-21-29%1-27%2-12-1—2-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals75%67%67%
Under 3.5 goals73%80%80%
12 – no draw72%71%71%
X2 – away team avoid defeat70%63%63%
1X – home team avoid defeat58%66%66%
Both teams to score: yes54%47%47%
Under 2.5 goals51%59%59%
Over 2.5 goals49%41%41%
Both teams to score: no46%53%53%
2 – St. Patricks win42%34% · Elo 37%34%· Elo 37%
1 – Derry City win30%37% · Elo 33%37%· Elo 33%
X – draw28%29% · Elo 30%29%· Elo 30%
Over 3.5 goals27%20%20%
Under 1.5 goals25%33%33%
Attack vs defence
Derry City attack vs St. Patricks defenceattack1523defence1645−122 pts to the attack
St. Patricks attack vs Derry City defenceattack1551defence1578−27 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.559%60%
8.545%46%
9.533%30%
10.523%22%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Derry Citywe expect 4.4, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 45%
St. Patrickswe expect 3.9, league average 3.4 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Under 21.5 · 58%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 20.7 in this match, 21.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
20.549%53%
21.542%49%
22.535%44%
23.529%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Derry Citywe expect 10.6, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 49%
St. Patrickswe expect 10.0, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 42%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 3.0 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.580%78%
2.558%49%
3.536%34%
4.519%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Derry Citywe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
St. Patrickswe expect 1.7, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 50%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • St. Patricks concede only 0.6 goals per game
  • Derry City played 3 days ago
  • St. Patricks played 3 days ago

League form

Derry City

St. Patricks

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2St. Patricks32178752:2559
5Derry City32914945:4241
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Derry City vs St. Patricks?

St. Patricks are the favourites. Chances: Derry City win 30%, draw 28%, St. Patricks win 42%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.

How many goals will there be in Derry City vs St. Patricks?

Expected goals: 2.6 (Derry City 1.2, St. Patricks 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 49%. Most likely score: 1-1.

Will both teams score in Derry City vs St. Patricks?

The chance that both teams score is 54%.

When is Derry City vs St. Patricks?

The Premier Division match kicks off 19 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).

See also