Serie AMatchday 7
Fiorentina vs Como: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%58%O2.558%55%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.6
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Como1:2FiorentinaW
- Fiorentina1:2ComoL
- Fiorentina0:2ComoL
- Como0:2FiorentinaW
Fiorentina's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses2.5 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.0league 8.9over 8.5: 53%Expected corners: 9.0 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.6under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.3 : 1.7total 3.0Attack/defence1.3 : 1.6total 2.9
Fiorentina : ComoMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-29%0-18%0-27%2-17%1-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%0-19%0-27%2-17%1-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%0-10-18%0-19%0-20-27%0-27%2-12-17%2-17%1-01-0—1-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%75% | 75% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 73%70% | 70% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%67% | 67% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60%58% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58%55% | 55% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 54%55% | 55% |
| 2 – Como win | 47%45% · Elo 47% | 45%· Elo 47% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%45% | 45% |
| Both teams to score: no | 40%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%33% | 33% |
| 1 – Fiorentina win | 28%30% · Elo 24% | 30%· Elo 24% |
| X – draw | 26%25% · Elo 28% | 25%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%22% | 22% |
Attack vs defence
Fiorentina attack vs Como defenceattack1499defence1584−85 pts to the attack
Como attack vs Fiorentina defenceattack1601defence1459+142 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.562%57%
8.549%41%
9.537%28%
10.526%19%
Each team on its own
Fiorentinawe expect 3.7, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 32%
Comowe expect 5.0, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 72%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%
We expect 21.7 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.542%51%
23.535%45%
24.529%37%
25.524%33%
Each team on its own
Fiorentinawe expect 10.7, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 39%
Comowe expect 10.8, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 40%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.567%62%
3.546%41%
4.527%28%
5.514%15%
Each team on its own
Fiorentinawe expect 2.1, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 62%
Comowe expect 1.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Como matches average 10.9 corners (league 8.9) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Fiorentina: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Como: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Como | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:6 | 11 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7:14 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fiorentina vs Como?
Como are the favourites. Chances: Fiorentina win 28%, draw 26%, Como win 47%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Fiorentina vs Como?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Fiorentina 1.3, Como 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Como?
The chance that both teams score is 60%.
When is Fiorentina vs Como?
The Serie A match kicks off 18 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).