Serie AMatchday 6

Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina: prediction, tips and result

·

Genoa
0-20-11-41-11-2
2-1Full time(half time 2-0)
Fiorentina
1-14-21-20-30-4
Stadium:
Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Referee:
Fabio Maresca

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Over 3.5Won57%

referee Fabio Maresca averages 5.1 card points a match, league average 3.9; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Fouls – Genoa: Under 11.5Won60%

    our numbers for Genoa: 10.8 fouls against a league average of 11.5

  • Shots on Target – Genoa: Under 4.5Won64%

    our numbers for Genoa: 3.9 shots on target against a league average of 4.4

  • Offsides – Genoa: Under 1.5Lost58%

    Fiorentina's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 5 of 5 (54% of league matches)

For the brave
Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Over 4.5Won39%

referee Fabio Maresca averages 5.1 card points a match, league average 3.9; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloGenoa173829%32%Draw29%30%Fiorentina178841%38%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%56%O2.545%52%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Fiorentina0:0GenoaD
  2. Genoa2:2FiorentinaD
  3. Fiorentina2:1GenoaL
  4. Genoa0:1FiorentinaL
  5. Fiorentina1:1GenoaD
Genoa's record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.7league 8.9over 8.5: 50%Expected corners: 8.7 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.lost · ended 7
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 3.6over 3.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.won · ended 8
RefereeF. Maresca+0.7 yellow cards vs average15 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)69%1X0:1coverageleague 76% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.1 : 1.4total 2.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.8
Genoa : Fiorentina
Most likely scores
Market1-114%0-111%0-09%1-29%1-08%2-1—Attack/defence1-112%0-18%0-07%1-28%1-09%2-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-112%0-10-111%0-18%0-00-09%0-07%1-21-29%1-28%1-01-08%1-09%2-12-1—2-19%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals76%70%70%
Over 1.5 goals72%76%76%
X2 – away team avoid defeat70%61%61%
12 – no draw70%74%74%
1X – home team avoid defeat58%65%65%
Under 2.5 goals55%48%48%
Both teams to score: yes51%56%56%
Both teams to score: no49%44%44%
Over 2.5 goals45%52%52%
2 – Fiorentina win41%35% · Elo 38%35%· Elo 38%
1 – Genoa win29%39% · Elo 32%39%· Elo 32%
X – draw29%26% · Elo 30%26%· Elo 30%
Under 1.5 goals28%24%24%
Over 3.5 goals24%30%30%
Attack vs defence
Genoa attack vs Fiorentina defenceattack1438defence1458−20 pts to the attack
Fiorentina attack vs Genoa defenceattack1504defence1468+36 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 7.9 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.553%57%
8.539%40%
9.528%28%
10.518%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Genoawe expect 3.9, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 36%
Fiorentinawe expect 3.8, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 23.3 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
22.553%53%
23.546%47%
24.540%39%
25.534%34%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Genoawe expect 10.8, league average 11.5 · chance of over 11.5: 40%
Fiorentinawe expect 12.1, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 53%
Referee: 24.8 fouls per match on average (15 matches in our data)+0.8 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 62%close to the league averageunderover 38%
We expect 3.1 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.560%61%
3.538%41%
4.521%28%
5.510%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Genoawe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Fiorentinawe expect 1.6, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 48%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Genoa score only 0.4 goals per game
  • Genoa: no win in 10 matches
  • Genoa: only 3 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 10 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Genoa: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Fiorentina: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Genoa

Fiorentina

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
17Genoa61145:114
19Fiorentina61147:144
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina (half time 2-0).

Did the Genoa vs Fiorentina tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Over 3.5. The tip won.

See also