Serie AMatchday 6

Inter 3-0 Parma: prediction, tips and result

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Inter
4-11-03-25-32-2
3-0Full time(half time 3-0)
Parma
2-11-21-10-20-1
Stadium:
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
Referee:
Kevin Bonacina

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Over 2.5Won70%

our numbers: 3.6 goals in total in this match, league average 2.5

Other tips

  • Yellow Cards: Under 3.5Won62%

    our numbers: 3.1 yellow cards against a league average of 3.6; referee Kevin Bonacina averages 2.8 yellow cards a match, league average 3.6

  • Corners: Over 8.5Lost57%

    10.4 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 9.6 in the visitors', league average 8.9

  • Shots on Target – Inter: Over 4.5Won63%

    our numbers for Inter: 5.6 shots on target against a league average of 4.4; Inter: over 4.5 shots on target in 5 of their last 5 league matches, Parma's opponents had over 4.5 in 3 of 5 (44% of league matches)

  • Fouls: Under 22.5Won63%

    our numbers: 21.0 fouls against a league average of 23.3; 15.2 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 24.4 in the visitors', league average 23.3

  • Offsides – Parma: Over 1.5Won59%

    Inter's opponents were caught offside 3.6 times on average, league average 1.7; our numbers for Parma: 2.1 offsides against a league average of 1.7

For the brave
Total Goals: Over 3.5Lost49%

our numbers: 3.6 goals in total in this match, league average 2.5; over 3.5 goals in 4 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 0 of the visitors' last 5 (23% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloInter206283%75%Draw11%16%Parma17206%9%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS45%54%O2.568%66%|exp. goals 2.5 : 0.9not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Inter2:0ParmaW
  2. Parma0:2InterW
  3. Parma2:2InterD
  4. Inter3:1ParmaW
  5. Parma1:2InterW
Inter's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.2league 8.9over 8.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.2 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.lost · ended 4
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.1league 3.6under 3.5: 62%Expected yellow cards: 3.1 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.won · ended 0
RefereeK. Bonacina−1.0 yellow cards vs average12 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)73%O3.53:02:0coverageleague 34% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.9 : 0.6total 3.5Attack/defence2.5 : 0.9total 3.4
Inter : Parma
Most likely scores
Market2-012%3-012%2-18%1-08%4-08%3-1—1-1—Attack/defence2-011%3-09%2-19%1-08%4-0—3-18%1-18%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-012%2-011%3-03-012%3-09%2-12-18%2-19%1-01-08%1-08%4-04-08%4-0—3-13-1—3-18%1-11-1—1-18%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
1X – home team avoid defeat94%90%90%
12 – no draw89%84%84%
Over 1.5 goals87%85%85%
1 – Inter win83%73% · Elo 75%73%· Elo 75%
Our tip: Over 2.5 goals68%66%66%
Both teams to score: no55%46%46%
Under 3.5 goals54%56%56%
Over 3.5 goals46%44%44%
Both teams to score: yes45%54%54%
Under 2.5 goals32%34%34%
X2 – away team avoid defeat17%27%27%
Under 1.5 goals13%15%15%
X – draw11%16% · Elo 16%16%· Elo 16%
2 – Parma win6%10% · Elo 9%10%· Elo 9%
Attack vs defence
Inter attack vs Parma defenceattack1752defence1454+298 pts to the attack
Parma attack vs Inter defenceattack1390defence1591−201 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.557%56%
8.544%40%
9.532%28%
10.522%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Interwe expect 5.5, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 63%
Parmawe expect 3.0, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 35%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 70%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 30%
We expect 20.9 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
22.537%53%
23.530%46%
24.525%38%
25.520%34%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Interwe expect 10.1, league average 11.5 · chance of over 11.5: 33%
Parmawe expect 10.4, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 35%
Referee: 24.3 fouls per match on average (12 matches in our data)+0.3 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 3.6 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.569%62%
3.548%41%
4.529%28%
5.516%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Interwe expect 1.5, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Parmawe expect 2.1, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 59%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Inter score 2.6 goals per game
  • Inter: unbeaten in 15 matches
  • Parma score a lot late on: 9 of 17 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Inter: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Parma: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Inter

Parma

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Inter651018:816
18Parma61144:104
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Inter vs Parma?

Inter 3-0 Parma (half time 3-0).

Did the Inter vs Parma tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 2.5. The tip won.

See also