Serie AMatchday 6

Sassuolo 1-1 Milan: prediction, tips and result

·

Sassuolo
1-22-12-23-21-2
1-1Full time(half time 0-0)
Milan
3-02-21-12-02-1
Stadium:
Mapei Stadium - Citta del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia
Referee:
Francesco Fourneau

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Total Goals: Over 2.5Lost58%

over 2.5 goals in 5 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 3 of the visitors' last 5 (48% of league matches); our numbers: 3.0 goals in total in this match, league average 2.5

Other tips

  • Fouls: Under 23.5Won63%

    under 23.5 fouls in 5 of the hosts' last 5 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 5 (54% of league matches); 19.4 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 19.8 in the visitors', league average 23.2

  • Offsides – Milan: Under 1.5Won65%

    our numbers for Milan: 1.2 offsides against a league average of 1.7; Milan: under 1.5 offsides in 4 of their last 5 league matches, Sassuolo's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 4 of 5 (51% of league matches)

  • Shots on Target – Sassuolo: Over 4.5Lost57%

    our numbers for Sassuolo: 5.2 shots on target against a league average of 4.4; Sassuolo: over 4.5 shots on target in 5 of their last 5 league matches (44% of league matches)

For the brave
Total Goals: Over 3.5Lost35%

over 3.5 goals in 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings; our numbers: 3.0 goals in total in this match, league average 2.5

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSassuolo177723%26%Draw25%29%Milan191052%45%favourite did not win
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%57%O2.558%54%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.6both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Sassuolo2:0MilanW
  2. Milan2:2SassuoloD
  3. Sassuolo3:3MilanD
  4. Milan1:0SassuoloL
  5. Milan2:5SassuoloW
Sassuolo's record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss4.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.5league 8.8under 8.5: 53%Expected corners: 8.5 in this match, 8.8 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 8.5 corners.won · ended 8
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.9league 3.6over 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.9 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.won · ended 5
RefereeF. Fourneau+0.2 yellow cards vs average14 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)71%U3.52:2coverageleague 82% · H2H 3/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.9total 3.1Attack/defence1.3 : 1.6total 2.8
Sassuolo : Milan
Most likely scores
Market1-111%1-210%0-18%0-28%2-16%1-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%0-19%0-27%2-17%1-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-21-210%1-29%0-10-18%0-19%0-20-28%0-27%2-12-16%2-17%1-01-0—1-07%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals81%77%77%
X2 – away team avoid defeat77%70%70%
12 – no draw75%75%75%
Under 3.5 goals64%69%69%
Both teams to score: yes59%57%57%
Our tip: Over 2.5 goals58%54%54%
2 – Milan win52%44% · Elo 45%44%· Elo 45%
1X – home team avoid defeat48%56%56%
Under 2.5 goals42%46%46%
Both teams to score: no41%43%43%
Over 3.5 goals36%31%31%
X – draw25%26% · Elo 29%26%· Elo 29%
1 – Sassuolo win23%30% · Elo 26%30%· Elo 26%
Under 1.5 goals19%23%23%
Attack vs defence
Sassuolo attack vs Milan defenceattack1462defence1551−89 pts to the attack
Milan attack vs Sassuolo defenceattack1564defence1439+125 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 49%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.562%56%
8.549%40%
9.536%27%
10.526%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sassuolowe expect 5.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 57%
Milanwe expect 3.8, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 63%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 37%
We expect 21.9 in this match, 23.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
22.543%52%
23.537%46%
24.531%38%
25.525%34%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sassuolowe expect 10.5, league average 11.5 · chance of over 11.5: 36%
Milanwe expect 11.5, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 47%
Referee: 23.6 fouls per match on average (14 matches in our data)−0.4 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
2.562%62%
3.540%41%
4.523%28%
5.511%15%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sassuolowe expect 2.0, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 57%
Milanwe expect 1.2, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 35%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Milan matches average only 6.2 corners (league 8.8) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
  • Sassuolo: 23 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Milan: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Sassuolo

Milan

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Milan633011:512
11Sassuolo622210:108
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Sassuolo vs Milan?

Sassuolo 1-1 Milan (half time 0-0).

Did the Sassuolo vs Milan tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Total Goals: Over 2.5. The tip lost.

See also