Serie AMatchday 7
Venezia vs Napoli: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%53%O2.557%52%|exp. goals 1.0 : 1.7
H2Hlast 4 meetings
- Venezia0:0NapoliD
- Napoli1:0VeneziaL
- Venezia0:2NapoliL
- Napoli2:0VeneziaL
Venezia's record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses1.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.8league 8.9over 8.5: 51%Expected corners: 8.8 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end over 8.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.6under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.0 : 1.9total 2.9Attack/defence1.0 : 1.7total 2.8
Venezia : NapoliMost likely scores
Market1-111%0-19%1-210%0-210%0-0—1-0—1-36%Attack/defence1-112%0-111%1-210%0-210%0-07%1-06%1-3—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%0-10-19%0-111%1-21-210%1-210%0-20-210%0-210%0-00-0—0-07%1-01-0—1-06%1-31-36%1-3—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%76% | 76% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 80%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%76% | 76% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66%70% | 70% |
| 2 – Napoli win | 57%54% · Elo 62% | 54%· Elo 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: no | 44%47% | 47% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 43%46% | 46% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43%48% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34%30% | 30% |
| X – draw | 23%24% · Elo 23% | 24%· Elo 23% |
| 1 – Venezia win | 20%22% · Elo 15% | 22%· Elo 15% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Venezia attack vs Napoli defenceattack1383defence1591−208 pts to the attack
Napoli attack vs Venezia defenceattack1568defence1387+181 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 8.8 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.564%57%
8.551%41%
9.539%28%
10.528%19%
Each team on its own
Veneziawe expect 4.2, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Napoliwe expect 4.9, league average 3.7 · chance of over 3.5: 70%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 80%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 20%
We expect 19.2 in this match, 23.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.525%51%
23.520%45%
24.515%37%
25.512%33%
Each team on its own
Veneziawe expect 9.6, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 27%
Napoliwe expect 9.2, league average 11.6 · chance of over 11.5: 23%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.572%62%
3.551%41%
4.533%28%
5.518%15%
Each team on its own
Veneziawe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 43%
Napoliwe expect 2.3, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 65%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Venezia6 defeats in a rowat home: 3Went on 51%League 33%Model 57%Record 15
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Venezia: 6 defeats in a row
- Venezia: newly promoted
- Venezia: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Napoli: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Napoli | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:6 | 10 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5:16 | 0 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Venezia vs Napoli?
Napoli are the favourites. Chances: Venezia win 20%, draw 23%, Napoli win 57%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Venezia vs Napoli?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Venezia 1.0, Napoli 1.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Napoli?
The chance that both teams score is 56%.
When is Venezia vs Napoli?
The Serie A match kicks off 17 October 2026, 14:00 (UK time).