J1 LeagueMatchday 12

Kawasaki Frontale vs Okayama: prediction, tips and stats

Sunday 25 October · 07:00

Kawasaki Frontale

1-2 3-1 1-0 3-3 1-2

1.6:1.3Pre-match

Okayama

1-2 1-2 2-1 3-2 2-1

Our tips

Tip in 11d 3h

For matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.

The match in numbers

1X2EloKawasaki Frontale164747%42%Draw24%28%Okayama161829%30%

Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.557%54%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.3

H2Hlast 2 meetings

08/11/202508/11/25Kawasaki Frontale1:1OkayamaD
16/03/202516/03/25Okayama0:0Kawasaki FrontaleD

Kawasaki Frontale's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses1.0 goals per match

too few to read anything into

Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.4under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.

Yellow cardsleague yellows2.7league 2.6over 2.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 2.7 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.

Refereeawaiting appointment

Prediction: result and goals

Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Model1.7 : 1.3total 3.0Attack/defence1.6 : 1.3total 2.9

Kawasaki Frontale : Okayama

Most likely scores

Model1-111%2-19%1-09%2-07%1-27%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%2-19%1-09%2-07%1-27%0-17%

ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-09%1-09%2-02-07%2-07%1-21-27%1-27%0-10-1—0-17%

Outcome	Model	Attack/defence
Over 1.5 goals	79%78%	78%
12 – no draw	76%75%	75%
1X – home team avoid defeat	71%70%	70%
Under 3.5 goals	66%68%	68%
Over 2.5 goals	57%54%	54%
X2 – away team avoid defeat	53%55%	55%
1 – Kawasaki Frontale win	47%45% · Elo 42%	45%· Elo 42%
Under 2.5 goals	43%46%	46%
Over 3.5 goals	34%32%	32%
2 – Okayama win	29%30% · Elo 30%	30%· Elo 30%
X – draw	24%25% · Elo 28%	25%· Elo 28%
Under 1.5 goals	21%22%	22%

Attack vs defence

Kawasaki Frontale attack vs Okayama defenceattack1587defence1517+70 pts to the attack

Okayama attack vs Kawasaki Frontale defenceattack1457defence1435+22 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 8.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 44%

We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

7.557%53%

8.544%39%

9.532%28%

10.522%23%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Kawasaki Frontalewe expect 4.6, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 48%

Okayamawe expect 3.7, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 51%

Foulsleague average

Over 19.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over

We expect 20.3 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

18.561%58%

19.554%49%

20.546%42%

21.539%35%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Kawasaki Frontalewe expect 9.9, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 52%

Okayamawe expect 10.5, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 47%

Offsidesleague average

Under 3.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 42%

We expect 3.3 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.

LineChance of overLeague

2.564%54%

3.542%35%

4.524%19%

5.512%13%

Both teams combined. Main line in bold.

Each team on its own

Kawasaki Frontalewe expect 2.0, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 57%

Okayamawe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 41%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

League form