J1 LeagueMatchday 11
Okayama vs Mito: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 7d 8hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%O2.548%46%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.0
H2Hhome side's goals firstnever met
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.4under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.6league 2.6under 2.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.6 : 1.0total 2.6Attack/defence1.5 : 1.0total 2.5
Okayama : MitoMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-012%2-19%2-09%0-0—0-18%Attack/defence1-113%1-012%2-19%2-09%0-09%0-18%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-012%1-012%2-12-19%2-19%2-02-09%2-09%0-00-0—0-09%0-10-18%0-18%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 75%73% | 73% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 75%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%76% | 76% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%71% | 71% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%54% | 54% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 51%53% | 53% |
| 1 – Okayama win | 49%47% · Elo 49% | 47%· Elo 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48%46% | 46% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%29% | 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%24% | 24% |
| 2 – Mito win | 25%26% · Elo 25% | 26%· Elo 25% |
| X – draw | 25%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
Attack vs defence
Okayama attack vs Mito defenceattack1457defence1426+31 pts to the attack
Mito attack vs Okayama defenceattack1430defence1517−87 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 63%close to the league averageunderover 37%
We expect 7.7 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.550%53%
8.537%39%
9.526%28%
10.517%23%
Each team on its own
Okayamawe expect 4.2, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Mitowe expect 3.3, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 42%
Foulsleague average
Under 19.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 18.9 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.551%58%
19.543%49%
20.536%42%
21.529%35%
Each team on its own
Okayamawe expect 9.1, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 43%
Mitowe expect 9.7, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 38%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 44%over
We expect 4.0 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.575%54%
3.556%35%
4.536%19%
5.521%13%
Each team on its own
Okayamawe expect 1.6, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Mitowe expect 2.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 68%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Okayama played 3 days ago
- Mito: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Okayama | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12:12 | 13 |
| 13 | Mito | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12:13 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Okayama vs Mito?
Okayama are the favourites. Chances: Okayama win 49%, draw 25%, Mito win 25%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Okayama vs Mito?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Okayama 1.6, Mito 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Okayama vs Mito?
The J1 League match kicks off 21 October 2026, 11:00 (UK time).