J1 LeagueMatchday 11
Kyoto vs Kashima Antlers: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 7d 6hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%O2.550%51%|exp. goals 1.2 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Kyoto1:1Kashima AntlersD
- Kashima Antlers3:4KyotoW
- Kyoto0:0Kashima AntlersD
- Kashima Antlers1:0KyotoL
- Kashima Antlers0:0KyotoD
Kyoto's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss2.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.4under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.8league 2.6over 2.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 2.8 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end over 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.1 : 1.6total 2.7Attack/defence1.2 : 1.5total 2.7
Kyoto : Kashima AntlersMost likely scores
Model1-112%0-111%1-29%0-28%1-08%2-1—Attack/defence1-113%0-110%1-29%0-27%1-08%2-17%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%0-10-111%0-110%1-21-29%1-29%0-20-28%0-27%1-01-08%1-08%2-12-1—2-17%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75%75% | 75% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 73%69% | 69% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72%72% | 72% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 52%57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50%49% | 49% |
| 2 – Kashima Antlers win | 48%43% · Elo 54% | 43%· Elo 54% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28%28% | 28% |
| 1 – Kyoto win | 27%31% · Elo 21% | 31%· Elo 21% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25%25% | 25% |
| X – draw | 25%26% · Elo 25% | 26%· Elo 25% |
Attack vs defence
Kyoto attack vs Kashima Antlers defenceattack1494defence1570−76 pts to the attack
Kashima Antlers attack vs Kyoto defenceattack1582defence1471+111 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 48%
We expect 8.6 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.562%53%
8.548%39%
9.536%28%
10.525%23%
Each team on its own
Kyotowe expect 4.4, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 45%
Kashima Antlerswe expect 4.4, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 63%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 20.2 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.560%58%
19.553%49%
20.545%42%
21.538%35%
Each team on its own
Kyotowe expect 10.5, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 58%
Kashima Antlerswe expect 9.7, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 39%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%close to the league averageunderover 39%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.561%54%
3.539%35%
4.522%19%
5.511%13%
Each team on its own
Kyotowe expect 1.7, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 50%
Kashima Antlerswe expect 1.5, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 16 | Kyoto | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11:16 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kyoto vs Kashima Antlers?
Kashima Antlers are the favourites. Chances: Kyoto win 27%, draw 25%, Kashima Antlers win 48%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Kyoto vs Kashima Antlers?
Expected goals: 2.7 (Kyoto 1.1, Kashima Antlers 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 50%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Kyoto vs Kashima Antlers?
The J1 League match kicks off 21 October 2026, 11:00 (UK time).