J1 LeagueMatchday 10
Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 3d 3hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%52%O2.557%53%|exp. goals 1.8 : 0.9
H2Hlast 2 meetings
- V-Varen Nagasaki1:2Kashima AntlersW
- Kashima Antlers2:1V-Varen NagasakiW
Kashima Antlers's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses3.0 goals per match
too few to read anything intoCornersleague corners9.1league 9.4under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.4 on average in the league.In this league 55% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows2.6league 2.6under 2.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 2.6 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 2.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 13%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.1 : 0.9total 3.0Attack/defence1.8 : 0.9total 2.8
Kashima Antlers : V-Varen NagasakiMost likely scores
Market1-110%1-010%2-011%2-110%3-07%0-0—Attack/defence1-111%1-011%2-011%2-110%3-06%0-07%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%1-01-010%1-011%2-02-011%2-011%2-12-110%2-110%3-03-07%3-06%0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 84%81% | 81% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 79%77% | 77% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%70% | 70% |
| 1 – Kashima Antlers win | 63%58% · Elo 65% | 58%· Elo 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57%53% | 53% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53%52% | 52% |
| Both teams to score: no | 47%48% | 48% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43%47% | 47% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 37%42% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%30% | 30% |
| X – draw | 21%23% · Elo 21% | 23%· Elo 21% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%23% | 23% |
| 2 – V-Varen Nagasaki win | 16%19% · Elo 14% | 19%· Elo 14% |
Attack vs defence
Kashima Antlers attack vs V-Varen Nagasaki defenceattack1582defence1430+152 pts to the attack
V-Varen Nagasaki attack vs Kashima Antlers defenceattack1432defence1570−138 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 52%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 48%over
We expect 8.9 in this match, 8.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.565%53%
8.552%39%
9.539%28%
10.528%23%
Each team on its own
Kashima Antlerswe expect 5.6, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 63%
V-Varen Nagasakiwe expect 3.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 52%
Foulsleague average
Over 19.5 · 58%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 42%over
We expect 20.9 in this match, 19.8 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.18.566%58%
19.558%49%
20.551%42%
21.544%35%
Each team on its own
Kashima Antlerswe expect 10.1, league average 9.7 · chance of over 9.5: 54%
V-Varen Nagasakiwe expect 11.0, league average 10.1 · chance of over 10.5: 53%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 71%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 29%
We expect 2.7 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.551%54%
3.529%35%
4.514%19%
5.56%13%
Each team on its own
Kashima Antlerswe expect 1.3, league average 1.6 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
V-Varen Nagasakiwe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19:16 | 16 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11:16 | 9 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
Kashima Antlers are the favourites. Chances: Kashima Antlers win 63%, draw 21%, V-Varen Nagasaki win 16%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Kashima Antlers 2.1, V-Varen Nagasaki 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
The chance that both teams score is 53%.
When is Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki?
The J1 League match kicks off 17 October 2026, 07:00 (UK time).