Eerste DivisieMatchday 12
Almere City vs Roda JC: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS57%O2.557%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Almere City1:2Roda JCL
- Roda JC2:0Almere CityL
- Roda JC0:2Almere CityW
- Almere City2:1Roda JCW
- Almere City0:4Roda JCL
Almere City's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.4under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.2league 3.2under 3.5: 61%Expected yellow cards: 3.2 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.8 : 1.1total 2.9Attack/defence1.9 : 1.1total 3.0
Almere City : Roda JCMost likely scores
Model1-110%1-010%2-110%2-09%0-16%3-1—1-2—Attack/defence1-111%1-09%2-110%2-09%0-1—3-16%1-26%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%1-01-010%1-09%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-09%2-09%0-10-16%0-1—3-13-1—3-16%1-21-2—1-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 78%77% | 77% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 77%78% | 78% |
| 1 – Almere City win | 55%55% · Elo 56% | 55%· Elo 56% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 45%45% | 45% |
| 2 – Roda JC win | 23%22% · Elo 21% | 22%· Elo 21% |
| X – draw | 22%23% · Elo 23% | 23%· Elo 23% |
Attack vs defence
Almere City attack vs Roda JC defenceattack1600defence1556+44 pts to the attack
Roda JC attack vs Almere City defenceattack1455defence1568−113 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 9.2 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.556%61%
9.544%51%
10.533%36%
11.523%29%
Each team on its own
Almere Citywe expect 5.8, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 50%
Roda JCwe expect 3.3, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 25%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 22.9 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.551%48%
23.544%45%
24.538%36%
25.531%32%
Each team on its own
Almere Citywe expect 12.3, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 56%
Roda JCwe expect 10.6, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 38%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 56%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 3.4 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.566%59%
3.544%31%
4.526%20%
5.513%11%
Each team on its own
Almere Citywe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Roda JCwe expect 1.9, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 55%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Roda JC: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Roda JC matches average only 8.2 corners (league 10.4) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Almere City: 22 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Almere City: 6 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Roda JC: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Almere City | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22:7 | 22 |
| 6 | Roda JC | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10:8 | 16 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Almere City vs Roda JC?
Almere City are the favourites. Chances: Almere City win 55%, draw 22%, Roda JC win 23%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Almere City vs Roda JC?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Almere City 1.8, Roda JC 1.1). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Almere City vs Roda JC?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).