Eerste DivisieMatchday 11
Utrecht vs Roda JC: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 5d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS60%57%O2.558%53%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Utrecht1:3Roda JCL
- Roda JC1:1UtrechtD
- Roda JC3:0UtrechtL
- Utrecht1:3Roda JCL
- Roda JC0:0UtrechtD
Utrecht's record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.4under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.2league 3.2under 3.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 3.2 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.8total 3.0Attack/defence1.4 : 1.4total 2.8
Utrecht : Roda JCMost likely scores
Market1-112%1-210%2-17%1-0—0-18%0-28%0-0—Attack/defence1-112%1-28%2-18%1-08%0-18%0-2—0-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-210%1-28%2-12-17%2-18%1-01-0—1-08%0-10-18%0-18%0-20-28%0-2—0-00-0—0-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%74% | 74% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 73%62% | 62% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65%69% | 69% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60%57% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58%53% | 53% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 50%64% | 64% |
| 2 – Roda JC win | 49%36% · Elo 46% | 36%· Elo 46% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: no | 40%43% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%31% | 31% |
| 1 – Utrecht win | 26%38% · Elo 28% | 38%· Elo 28% |
| X – draw | 24%26% · Elo 25% | 26%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Utrecht attack vs Roda JC defenceattack1449defence1556−107 pts to the attack
Roda JC attack vs Utrecht defenceattack1455defence1448+7 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 9.4 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.559%61%
9.546%51%
10.535%36%
11.525%29%
Each team on its own
Utrechtwe expect 5.0, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 38%
Roda JCwe expect 4.2, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 41%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 71%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 30%over
We expect 27.2 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.576%48%
23.571%45%
24.565%36%
25.559%32%
Each team on its own
Utrechtwe expect 14.9, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 78%
Roda JCwe expect 12.8, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 61%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 60%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 40%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.562%59%
3.540%31%
4.522%20%
5.511%11%
Each team on its own
Utrechtwe expect 1.5, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 44%
Roda JCwe expect 1.7, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Roda JC6 matches in a row under 2.5 goalsWent on 56%League 33%Model 42%Record 13
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Utrecht concede 2.3 goals per game
- Utrecht: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Roda JC: only 2 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Roda JC matches average only 8.2 corners (league 10.4) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Utrecht: 10 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Roda JC: 10 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Roda JC | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 10:8 | 16 |
| 20 | Utrecht | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 16:23 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Utrecht vs Roda JC?
Roda JC are the favourites. Chances: Utrecht win 26%, draw 24%, Roda JC win 49%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Utrecht vs Roda JC?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Utrecht 1.2, Roda JC 1.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 58%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Utrecht vs Roda JC?
The chance that both teams score is 60%.
When is Utrecht vs Roda JC?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 19 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).