Eerste DivisieMatchday 12
Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS63%O2.560%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- VVV Venlo3:1DordrechtL
- Dordrecht2:0VVV VenloW
- Dordrecht4:0VVV VenloW
- VVV Venlo2:3DordrechtW
- Dordrecht1:0VVV VenloW
Dordrecht's record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.4under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.2under 3.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.6 : 1.4total 3.1Attack/defence1.6 : 1.5total 3.1
Dordrecht : VVV VenloMost likely scores
Model1-111%2-19%1-08%1-28%0-17%2-2—Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-07%1-28%0-16%2-27%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%2-12-19%2-19%1-01-08%1-07%1-21-28%1-28%0-10-17%0-16%2-22-2—2-27%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 77%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 66%65% | 65% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 57%59% | 59% |
| 1 – Dordrecht win | 43%41% · Elo 34% | 41%· Elo 34% |
| 2 – VVV Venlo win | 34%35% · Elo 40% | 35%· Elo 40% |
| X – draw | 23%24% · Elo 26% | 24%· Elo 26% |
Attack vs defence
Dordrecht attack vs VVV Venlo defenceattack1461defence1491−30 pts to the attack
VVV Venlo attack vs Dordrecht defenceattack1522defence1478+44 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 10.0 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.566%61%
9.554%51%
10.542%36%
11.531%29%
Each team on its own
Dordrechtwe expect 4.9, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 37%
VVV Venlowe expect 5.1, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 57%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 50%over
We expect 23.9 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.557%48%
23.550%45%
24.544%36%
25.537%32%
Each team on its own
Dordrechtwe expect 12.2, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 55%
VVV Venlowe expect 11.7, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 74%close to the league averageunderover 26%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.547%59%
3.526%31%
4.512%20%
5.55%11%
Each team on its own
Dordrechtwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
VVV Venlowe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Dordrecht concede 2.7 goals per game
- VVV Venlo score 2.6 goals per game
- Dordrecht matches average 4.7 cards (league 3.3) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Dordrecht: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- VVV Venlo: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- VVV Venlo: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Dordrecht: 5 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- VVV Venlo: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 26:14 | 21 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13:27 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Dordrecht win 43%, draw 23%, VVV Venlo win 34%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Dordrecht 1.6, VVV Venlo 1.4). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Dordrecht vs VVV Venlo?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:30 (UK time).