Eerste DivisieMatchday 11
VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ Alkmaar: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 2d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS72%67%O2.573%67%|exp. goals 2.0 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- VVV Venlo1:3Jong AZ AlkmaarL
- Jong AZ Alkmaar0:2VVV VenloW
- Jong AZ Alkmaar3:0VVV VenloL
- VVV Venlo0:1Jong AZ AlkmaarL
- Jong AZ Alkmaar2:1VVV VenloL
VVV Venlo's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses2.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.4league 10.4under 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 10.4 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 52% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.2league 3.2under 3.5: 60%Expected yellow cards: 3.2 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.1 : 1.7total 3.8Attack/defence2.0 : 1.5total 3.5
VVV Venlo : Jong AZ AlkmaarMost likely scores
Market1-19%2-18%2-27%1-27%3-16%2-0—Attack/defence1-110%2-19%2-27%1-27%3-16%2-06%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-19%1-110%2-12-18%2-19%2-22-27%2-27%1-21-27%1-27%3-13-16%3-16%2-02-0—2-06%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%86% | 86% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%77% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73%67% | 67% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 72%67% | 67% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 68%70% | 70% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 55%53% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53%46% | 46% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 47%54% | 54% |
| 1 – VVV Venlo win | 45%47% · Elo 46% | 47%· Elo 46% |
| 2 – Jong AZ Alkmaar win | 32%30% · Elo 28% | 30%· Elo 28% |
| Both teams to score: no | 28%33% | 33% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 27%33% | 33% |
| X – draw | 23%23% · Elo 25% | 23%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10%14% | 14% |
Attack vs defence
VVV Venlo attack vs Jong AZ Alkmaar defenceattack1522defence1456+66 pts to the attack
Jong AZ Alkmaar attack vs VVV Venlo defenceattack1546defence1491+55 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 10.1 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.566%61%
9.554%51%
10.542%36%
11.532%29%
Each team on its own
VVV Venlowe expect 5.8, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 51%
Jong AZ Alkmaarwe expect 4.5, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 47%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 22.6 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.548%48%
23.542%45%
24.535%36%
25.529%32%
Each team on its own
VVV Venlowe expect 11.3, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 45%
Jong AZ Alkmaarwe expect 11.2, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 45%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 70%close to the league averageunderover 30%
We expect 2.8 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.552%59%
3.530%31%
4.515%20%
5.57%11%
Each team on its own
VVV Venlowe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 40%
Jong AZ Alkmaarwe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- VVV Venlo score 2.6 goals per game
- VVV Venlo: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- VVV Venlo: 21 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 13 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- VVV Venlo: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Jong AZ Alkmaar: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | VVV Venlo | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 26:14 | 21 |
| 11 | Jong AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 22:18 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ Alkmaar?
VVV Venlo are the favourites. Chances: VVV Venlo win 45%, draw 23%, Jong AZ Alkmaar win 32%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ Alkmaar?
Expected goals: 3.8 (VVV Venlo 2.1, Jong AZ Alkmaar 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 73%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ Alkmaar?
The chance that both teams score is 72%.
When is VVV Venlo vs Jong AZ Alkmaar?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 16 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).