Eerste DivisieMatchday 12
Oss vs Jong Ajax Amsterdam: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 10hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%O2.557%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.2
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Jong Ajax Amsterdam1:2OssW
- Oss1:1Jong Ajax AmsterdamD
- Jong Ajax Amsterdam0:0OssD
- Oss2:1Jong Ajax AmsterdamW
- Oss2:1Jong Ajax AmsterdamW
Oss's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.8league 10.4over 10.5: 51%Expected corners: 10.8 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.2league 3.2under 3.5: 60%Expected yellow cards: 3.2 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.7 : 1.2total 2.8Attack/defence1.7 : 1.2total 3.0
Oss : Jong Ajax AmsterdamMost likely scores
Model1-111%1-010%2-110%2-08%0-17%1-2—Attack/defence1-111%1-09%2-110%2-08%0-16%1-27%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%1-01-010%1-09%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-08%2-08%0-10-17%0-16%1-21-2—1-27%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 76%76% | 76% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 73%73% | 73% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 50%52% | 52% |
| 1 – Oss win | 50%48% · Elo 53% | 48%· Elo 53% |
| 2 – Jong Ajax Amsterdam win | 27%27% · Elo 23% | 27%· Elo 23% |
| X – draw | 24%25% · Elo 24% | 25%· Elo 24% |
Attack vs defence
Oss attack vs Jong Ajax Amsterdam defenceattack1414defence1418−4 pts to the attack
Jong Ajax Amsterdam attack vs Oss defenceattack1397defence1453−56 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 51%close to the league averageunderover 50%
We expect 9.7 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.562%61%
9.550%51%
10.538%36%
11.527%29%
Each team on its own
Osswe expect 5.3, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 43%
Jong Ajax Amsterdamwe expect 4.4, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 54%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 46%over
We expect 24.5 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.561%48%
23.554%45%
24.548%36%
25.541%32%
Each team on its own
Osswe expect 12.4, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 56%
Jong Ajax Amsterdamwe expect 12.2, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 55%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 61%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.561%59%
3.539%31%
4.522%20%
5.511%11%
Each team on its own
Osswe expect 2.0, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 57%
Jong Ajax Amsterdamwe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 35%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Jong Ajax Amsterdam concede 2.5 goals per game
- Oss: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Oss: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Jong Ajax Amsterdam: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Oss | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax Amsterdam | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13:25 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Oss vs Jong Ajax Amsterdam?
Oss are the favourites. Chances: Oss win 50%, draw 24%, Jong Ajax Amsterdam win 27%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Oss vs Jong Ajax Amsterdam?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Oss 1.7, Jong Ajax Amsterdam 1.2). Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Oss vs Jong Ajax Amsterdam?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 23 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).