Eerste DivisieMatchday 11
Jong Ajax Amsterdam vs Graafschap: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 5d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS74%65%O2.574%63%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.7
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Graafschap4:0Jong Ajax AmsterdamL
- Jong Ajax Amsterdam2:2GraafschapD
- Graafschap2:0Jong Ajax AmsterdamL
- Jong Ajax Amsterdam2:0GraafschapW
- Graafschap0:2Jong Ajax AmsterdamW
Jong Ajax Amsterdam's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.7league 10.4over 10.5: 50%Expected corners: 10.7 in this match, 10.4 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.5league 3.2under 3.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 3.5 in this match, 3.2 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 9%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.9 : 2.0total 3.9Attack/defence1.5 : 1.7total 3.2
Jong Ajax Amsterdam : GraafschapMost likely scores
Market1-18%1-28%2-17%2-27%0-1—0-2—1-35%Attack/defence1-111%1-29%2-18%2-27%0-16%0-26%1-3—
MarketAttack/defence1-11-18%1-111%1-21-28%1-29%2-12-17%2-18%2-22-27%2-27%0-10-1—0-16%0-20-2—0-26%1-31-35%1-3—
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90%83% | 83% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%76% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74%63% | 63% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 74%65% | 65% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 64%66% | 66% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 59%58% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54%41% | 41% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 46%59% | 59% |
| 2 – Graafschap win | 41%42% · Elo 49% | 42%· Elo 49% |
| 1 – Jong Ajax Amsterdam win | 36%34% · Elo 26% | 34%· Elo 26% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 26%37% | 37% |
| Both teams to score: no | 26%36% | 36% |
| X – draw | 23%24% · Elo 25% | 24%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 10%17% | 17% |
Attack vs defence
Jong Ajax Amsterdam attack vs Graafschap defenceattack1397defence1464−67 pts to the attack
Graafschap attack vs Jong Ajax Amsterdam defenceattack1539defence1418+121 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 9.5 · 54%close to the league averageunder 46%over
We expect 10.0 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.566%61%
9.554%51%
10.542%36%
11.531%29%
Each team on its own
Jong Ajax Amsterdamwe expect 5.7, league average 5.4 · chance of over 5.5: 50%
Graafschapwe expect 4.5, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 46%
Foulsleague average
Under 23.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunderover 50%
We expect 23.8 in this match, 23.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.557%48%
23.550%45%
24.543%36%
25.537%32%
Each team on its own
Jong Ajax Amsterdamwe expect 12.3, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 55%
Graafschapwe expect 11.6, league average 11.4 · chance of over 11.5: 49%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 67%close to the league averageunderover 34%
We expect 2.9 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.556%59%
3.534%31%
4.517%20%
5.58%11%
Each team on its own
Jong Ajax Amsterdamwe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 38%
Graafschapwe expect 1.6, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 46%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Jong Ajax Amsterdam concede 2.5 goals per game
- Graafschap concede 2.3 goals per game
- Graafschap: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Jong Ajax Amsterdam: 10 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Graafschap: 10 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Graafschap | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13:23 | 11 |
| 18 | Jong Ajax Amsterdam | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13:25 | 8 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Jong Ajax Amsterdam vs Graafschap?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Jong Ajax Amsterdam win 36%, draw 23%, Graafschap win 41%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Jong Ajax Amsterdam vs Graafschap?
Expected goals: 3.9 (Jong Ajax Amsterdam 1.9, Graafschap 2.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 74%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax Amsterdam vs Graafschap?
The chance that both teams score is 74%.
When is Jong Ajax Amsterdam vs Graafschap?
The Eerste Divisie match kicks off 19 October 2026, 19:00 (UK time).