EliteserienMatchday 12
Lillestrom vs Brann: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS59%O2.557%56%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Brann1:2LillestromW
- Brann2:1LillestromL
- Lillestrom0:2BrannL
- Lillestrom0:2BrannL
- Brann2:2LillestromD
Lillestrom's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners11.3league 10.9over 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 11.3 in this match, 10.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.3under 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.4 : 1.6total 3.0Attack/defence1.4 : 1.5total 2.9
Lillestrom : BrannMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-29%2-18%0-18%1-07%2-2—Attack/defence1-112%1-29%2-18%0-18%1-07%2-26%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-112%1-21-29%1-29%2-12-18%2-18%0-10-18%0-18%1-01-07%1-07%2-22-2—2-26%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80%79% | 79% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%75% | 75% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66%67% | 67% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 65%64% | 64% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 60%61% | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57%56% | 56% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43%44% | 44% |
| 2 – Brann win | 41%39% · Elo 47% | 39%· Elo 47% |
| 1 – Lillestrom win | 35%36% · Elo 27% | 36%· Elo 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35%33% | 33% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 26% | 25%· Elo 26% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20%21% | 21% |
Attack vs defence
Lillestrom attack vs Brann defenceattack1415defence1521−106 pts to the attack
Brann attack vs Lillestrom defenceattack1538defence1466+72 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 57%close to the league averageunderover 43%
We expect 9.1 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.556%55%
9.543%43%
10.532%35%
11.522%21%
Each team on its own
Lillestromwe expect 4.6, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 33%
Brannwe expect 4.4, league average 4.0 · chance of over 4.5: 44%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 59%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 41%over
We expect 22.1 in this match, 20.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.566%56%
20.559%52%
21.552%43%
22.545%35%
Each team on its own
Lillestromwe expect 11.2, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 55%
Brannwe expect 11.0, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 53%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.569%73%
2.543%50%
3.522%28%
4.510%12%
Each team on its own
Lillestromwe expect 1.3, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 37%
Brannwe expect 1.0, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 28%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lillestrom concede 2.0 goals per game
- Lillestrom: newly promoted
- Lillestrom: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Brann: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 30:31 | 33 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 39:34 | 29 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lillestrom vs Brann?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Lillestrom win 35%, draw 25%, Brann win 41%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Lillestrom vs Brann?
Expected goals: 3.0 (Lillestrom 1.4, Brann 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 57%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Lillestrom vs Brann?
The Eliteserien match kicks off 25 October 2026, 16:00 (UK time).