EliteserienMatchday 24
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 9hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS64%55%O2.561%54%|exp. goals 1.8 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Lillestrom3:1SandefjordL
- Lillestrom0:3SandefjordW
- Sandefjord0:1LillestromL
- Sandefjord1:0LillestromW
- Lillestrom4:2SandefjordL
Sandefjord's record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.9league 10.9over 10.5: 52%Expected corners: 10.9 in this match, 10.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.6league 3.3under 3.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 3.6 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.6total 3.1Attack/defence1.8 : 1.1total 2.8
Sandefjord : LillestromMost likely scores
Market1-111%1-0—2-18%2-0—1-29%2-27%0-0—0-16%Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-110%2-09%1-2—2-2—0-06%0-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-0—1-010%2-12-18%2-110%2-02-0—2-09%1-21-29%1-2—2-22-27%2-2—0-00-0—0-06%0-10-16%0-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83%77% | 77% |
| 12 – no draw | 74%76% | 76% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 65%47% | 47% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64%55% | 55% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 61%77% | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61%54% | 54% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 61%69% | 69% |
| 2 – Lillestrom win | 39%23% · Elo 24% | 23%· Elo 24% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39%46% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39%31% | 31% |
| Both teams to score: no | 36%45% | 45% |
| 1 – Sandefjord win | 35%53% · Elo 51% | 53%· Elo 51% |
| X – draw | 26%24% · Elo 25% | 24%· Elo 25% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17%23% | 23% |
Attack vs defence
Sandefjord attack vs Lillestrom defenceattack1473defence1466+7 pts to the attack
Lillestrom attack vs Sandefjord defenceattack1415defence1525−110 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 9.0 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.554%55%
9.542%43%
10.530%35%
11.521%21%
Each team on its own
Sandefjordwe expect 5.0, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 39%
Lillestromwe expect 3.9, league average 4.0 · chance of over 4.5: 35%
Foulsleague average
Over 20.5 · 69%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 31%over
We expect 23.7 in this match, 20.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.575%56%
20.569%52%
21.563%43%
22.556%35%
Each team on its own
Sandefjordwe expect 12.3, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 66%
Lillestromwe expect 11.7, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 61%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 2.8 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.576%73%
2.552%50%
3.530%28%
4.515%12%
Each team on its own
Sandefjordwe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Lillestromwe expect 1.6, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Lillestrom concede 2.0 goals per game
- Lillestrom: newly promoted
- Sandefjord: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Lillestrom: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 30:31 | 33 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 22:28 | 24 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Sandefjord win 35%, draw 26%, Lillestrom win 39%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Sandefjord 1.5, Lillestrom 1.6). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 61%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
The chance that both teams score is 64%.
When is Sandefjord vs Lillestrom?
The Eliteserien match kicks off 18 October 2026, 16:00 (UK time).