EliteserienMatchday 12
Molde vs Fredrikstad: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 7hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%O2.554%55%|exp. goals 1.9 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Molde1:2FredrikstadL
- Fredrikstad4:2MoldeL
- Molde6:1FredrikstadW
- Fredrikstad0:0MoldeD
- Fredrikstad0:2MoldeW
Molde's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners11.0league 10.9over 10.5: 54%Expected corners: 11.0 in this match, 10.9 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.3league 3.3under 3.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 3.3 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 15%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.8 : 1.0total 2.9Attack/defence1.9 : 1.0total 2.9
Molde : FredrikstadMost likely scores
Model1-111%1-010%2-110%2-010%3-1—3-0—0-06%Attack/defence1-111%1-010%2-110%2-010%3-16%3-06%0-0—
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-111%1-01-010%1-010%2-12-110%2-110%2-02-010%2-010%3-13-1—3-16%3-03-0—3-06%0-00-06%0-0—
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 79%80% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%78% | 78% |
| 12 – no draw | 77%77% | 77% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68%67% | 67% |
| 1 – Molde win | 56%57% · Elo 54% | 57%· Elo 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54%55% | 55% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46%45% | 45% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 44%43% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32%33% | 33% |
| X – draw | 23%23% · Elo 24% | 23%· Elo 24% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%22% | 22% |
| 2 – Fredrikstad win | 21%20% · Elo 22% | 20%· Elo 22% |
Attack vs defence
Molde attack vs Fredrikstad defenceattack1581defence1538+43 pts to the attack
Fredrikstad attack vs Molde defenceattack1404defence1539−135 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 9.0 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.553%55%
9.541%43%
10.530%35%
11.520%21%
Each team on its own
Moldewe expect 5.7, league average 5.2 · chance of over 5.5: 49%
Fredrikstadwe expect 3.3, league average 4.0 · chance of over 4.5: 25%
Foulsleague average
Under 20.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 19.8 in this match, 20.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.19.550%56%
20.543%52%
21.536%43%
22.529%35%
Each team on its own
Moldewe expect 10.6, league average 10.6 · chance of over 10.5: 49%
Fredrikstadwe expect 9.1, league average 10.3 · chance of over 10.5: 31%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 65%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 35%over
We expect 3.4 in this match, 2.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.584%73%
2.565%50%
3.543%28%
4.525%12%
Each team on its own
Moldewe expect 2.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 67%
Fredrikstadwe expect 1.1, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 31%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Molde score 2.6 goals per game
- Molde: 9 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Molde: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Fredrikstad: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 46:34 | 37 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 26:33 | 29 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Molde are the favourites. Chances: Molde win 56%, draw 23%, Fredrikstad win 21%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Expected goals: 2.9 (Molde 1.8, Fredrikstad 1.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Molde vs Fredrikstad?
The Eliteserien match kicks off 25 October 2026, 18:15 (UK time).