Liga Portugal 2Matchday 8
Farense vs Penafiel: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS49%50%O2.545%45%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.1
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Penafiel1:1FarenseD
- Farense0:0PenafielD
- Farense2:1PenafielW
- Penafiel0:2FarenseW
- Penafiel1:3FarenseW
Farense's record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.5under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows5.1league 5.5under 5.5: 59%Expected yellow cards: 5.1 in this match, 5.5 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 5.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 32%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 0.9total 2.4Attack/defence1.4 : 1.1total 2.5
Farense : PenafielMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-012%2-010%2-19%0-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%2-08%2-19%0-09%0-19%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-012%1-011%2-02-010%2-08%2-12-19%2-19%0-00-09%0-09%0-10-1—0-19%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 78%70% | 70% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 72%72% | 72% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72%71% | 71% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 55%55% | 55% |
| Both teams to score: no | 51%50% | 50% |
| 1 – Farense win | 50%43% · Elo 46% | 43%· Elo 46% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 50%57% | 57% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49%50% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45%45% | 45% |
| X – draw | 28%28% · Elo 27% | 28%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28%29% | 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24%24% | 24% |
| 2 – Penafiel win | 22%30% · Elo 27% | 30%· Elo 27% |
Attack vs defence
Farense attack vs Penafiel defenceattack1508defence1504+4 pts to the attack
Penafiel attack vs Farense defenceattack1525defence1542−17 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 50%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 50%over
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.563%55%
8.550%40%
9.538%34%
10.527%18%
Each team on its own
Farensewe expect 5.2, league average 4.6 · chance of over 4.5: 57%
Penafielwe expect 3.9, league average 3.6 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Under 26.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 26.4 in this match, 26.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.25.554%52%
26.547%45%
27.541%44%
28.535%36%
Each team on its own
Farensewe expect 12.2, league average 13.3 · chance of over 13.5: 35%
Penafielwe expect 14.2, league average 12.9 · chance of over 12.5: 64%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 2.3 in this match, 2.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.568%69%
2.542%42%
3.521%26%
4.59%14%
Each team on its own
Farensewe expect 1.4, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Penafielwe expect 0.9, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 23%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Penafiel7 matches in a row over 2.5 goals awayoverall: 4Went on 57%League 44%Model 45%Record 13
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Farense matches average only 4.2 cards (league 5.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Penafiel matches average only 4.6 cards (league 5.9) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
- Farense: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Penafiel: 15 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:6 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:7 | 13 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Farense vs Penafiel?
Farense are the favourites. Chances: Farense win 50%, draw 28%, Penafiel win 22%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Farense vs Penafiel?
Expected goals: 2.4 (Farense 1.5, Penafiel 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 45%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Penafiel?
The chance that both teams score is 49%.
When is Farense vs Penafiel?
The Liga Portugal 2 match kicks off 24 October 2026, 18:00 (UK time).