Liga PortugalMatchday 10
Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon: prediction, tips and stats
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0.9:2.0Pre-match
Our tips
Tip in 1d 4hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defence
BTTS45%51%O2.560%54%|exp. goals 0.9 : 2.0H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Sp Lisbon3:0Casa PiaL
- Casa Pia0:2Sp LisbonL
- Casa Pia1:3Sp LisbonL
- Sp Lisbon2:0Casa PiaL
- Sp Lisbon8:0Casa PiaL
Casa Pia's record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 5 losses3.8 goals per match
Cornersleague cornersin line with the league
9.4league 9.3under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league
4.6league 4.8under 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 48% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.Referee
awaiting appointmentPrediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.7 : 2.4total 3.1Attack/defence0.9 : 2.0total 2.9
Casa Pia : Sp LisbonMost likely scores
Market0-213%0-110%0-311%1-18%1-29%1-3—Attack/defence0-211%0-111%0-37%1-110%1-210%1-37%
MarketAttack/defence0-20-213%0-211%0-10-110%0-111%0-30-311%0-37%1-11-18%1-110%1-21-29%1-210%1-31-3—1-37%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 91%84% | 84% |
| 12 – no draw | 85%78% | 78% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82%78% | 78% |
| 2 – Sp Lisbon win | 76%62% · Elo 78% | 62%· Elo 78% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62%68% | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: no | 55%49% | 49% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45%51% | 51% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40%46% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38%32% | 32% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 24%38% | 38% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18%22% | 22% |
| X – draw | 15%22% · Elo 14% | 22%· Elo 14% |
| 1 – Casa Pia win | 9%16% · Elo 8% | 16%· Elo 8% |
Attack vs defence
Casa Pia attack vs Sp Lisbon defenceattack1376defence1624−248 pts to the attack
Sp Lisbon attack vs Casa Pia defenceattack1731defence1428+303 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.558%60%
8.545%46%
9.533%31%
10.523%21%
Each team on its own
Casa Piawe expect 3.5, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 28%
Sp Lisbonwe expect 4.7, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 68%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 65%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 35%
We expect 23.5 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.541%56%
25.535%50%
26.529%42%
27.524%36%
Each team on its own
Casa Piawe expect 11.6, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 39%
Sp Lisbonwe expect 11.6, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 39%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.569%77%
2.544%50%
3.523%30%
4.510%18%
Each team on its own
Casa Piawe expect 1.0, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 27%
Sp Lisbonwe expect 1.4, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
Teams
- Sp Lisbon31 matches unbeaten awayWent on 90%League 63%Model 91%Record 58
Players
- Luis SuarezSp Lisbon3 matches with a goal3 goalsWent on 28%Season 67%
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Sp Lisbon score 2.4 goals per game (last 10 league matches)
- Sp Lisbon: 8 of the last 10 league matches over 2.5 goals
- Casa Pia score only 0.7 goals per game (last 10 league matches)
- Sp Lisbon concede a lot late on: 12 of 23 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
- Casa Pia: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Sp Lisbon: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | 18 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5:17 | 7 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon?
Sp Lisbon are the favourites. Chances: Casa Pia win 9%, draw 15%, Sp Lisbon win 76%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon?
Expected goals: 3.1 (Casa Pia 0.7, Sp Lisbon 2.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 60%. Most likely score: 0-2.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon?
The chance that both teams score is 45%.
When is Casa Pia vs Sp Lisbon?
The Liga Portugal match kicks off 30 October 2026, 20:15 (UK time).