Liga PortugalMatchday 9
Estrela vs Casa Pia: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%50%O2.547%46%|exp. goals 1.5 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Estrela4:0Casa PiaW
- Casa Pia3:5EstrelaW
- Casa Pia1:0EstrelaL
- Estrela0:1Casa PiaL
- Estrela3:1Casa PiaW
Estrela's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses3.6 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.4league 9.3under 9.5: 54%Expected corners: 9.4 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.7league 4.8over 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.7 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 0.9total 2.5Attack/defence1.5 : 1.0total 2.5
Estrela : Casa PiaMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-012%2-010%2-110%0-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-113%1-012%2-09%2-19%0-09%0-18%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-012%1-012%2-02-010%2-09%2-12-110%2-19%0-00-09%0-09%0-10-1—0-18%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 78%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%73% | 73% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%71% | 71% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%54% | 54% |
| 1 – Estrela win | 52%47% · Elo 41% | 47%· Elo 41% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50%50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score: no | 50%50% | 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 47%54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%46% | 46% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%29% | 29% |
| X – draw | 26%27% · Elo 29% | 27%· Elo 29% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%24% | 24% |
| 2 – Casa Pia win | 21%27% · Elo 30% | 27%· Elo 30% |
Attack vs defence
Estrela attack vs Casa Pia defenceattack1450defence1424+26 pts to the attack
Casa Pia attack vs Estrela defenceattack1372defence1421−49 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 58%close to the league averageunderover 42%
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.556%59%
8.542%46%
9.530%31%
10.521%21%
Each team on its own
Estrelawe expect 4.5, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 46%
Casa Piawe expect 3.6, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 47%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 68%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 32%
We expect 23.1 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.538%56%
25.532%50%
26.527%42%
27.522%36%
Each team on its own
Estrelawe expect 11.6, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 39%
Casa Piawe expect 11.1, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 34%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 56%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 44%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.569%78%
2.544%51%
3.523%31%
4.510%18%
Each team on its own
Estrelawe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 30%
Casa Piawe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 36%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Casa Pia score only 0.5 goals per game
- Estrela: 13 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Casa Pia: 14 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14:15 | 10 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3:17 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Estrela are the favourites. Chances: Estrela win 52%, draw 26%, Casa Pia win 21%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Estrela 1.6, Casa Pia 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
The chance that both teams score is 50%.
When is Estrela vs Casa Pia?
The Liga Portugal match kicks off 24 October 2026, 15:30 (UK time).