Liga PortugalMatchday 8

Arouca 1-0 Estrela: prediction, tips and result

·

Arouca
0-22-10-01-22-2
1-0Full time(half time 1-0)
Estrela
0-23-32-12-23-2
Stadium:
Estadio Municipal de Arouca, Arouca
Referee:
Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Corners: Under 9.5Lost58%

under 9.5 corners in 5 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 5 of the visitors' last 7 (54% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Cards (yellow=1, red=2): Under 5.5Lost62%

    referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe averages 5.2 card points a match, league average 5.3; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

  • Fouls: Under 23.5Won58%

    our numbers: 22.6 fouls against a league average of 25.5; 20.7 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 22.3 in the visitors', league average 25.5

  • Offsides – Estrela: Under 1.5Lost71%

    our numbers for Estrela: 1.1 offsides against a league average of 1.5; Estrela: 0.4 offsides a match, Arouca's opponents were caught offside 1.4 times on average, league average 1.5

For the brave
Corners: Under 7.5Lost33%

under 7.5 corners in 4 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 3 of the visitors' last 7 (33% of league matches)

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloArouca167444%55%Draw27%26%Estrela154728%20%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS56%54%O2.551%51%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.1not both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Arouca1:0EstrelaW
  2. Estrela3:1AroucaL
  3. Arouca1:0EstrelaW
  4. Estrela2:1AroucaL
  5. Arouca0:0EstrelaD
Arouca's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses1.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.3under 9.5: 58%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.lost · ended 11
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.8under 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 22%.lost · ended 7
RefereeL. Carlos Mateus Filipe−0.6 yellow cards vs average23 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)66%BTTS yes1:0coverageleague 59% · H2H 4/5covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.2total 2.7Attack/defence1.6 : 1.1total 2.7
Arouca : Estrela
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-09%2-19%2-08%0-07%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-110%2-09%0-07%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-01-09%1-010%2-12-19%2-110%2-02-08%2-09%0-00-07%0-07%0-10-1—0-17%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals77%76%76%
12 – no draw72%75%75%
1X – home team avoid defeat71%74%74%
Under 3.5 goals71%71%71%
Both teams to score: yes56%54%54%
X2 – away team avoid defeat55%51%51%
Over 2.5 goals51%51%51%
Under 2.5 goals49%49%49%
1 – Arouca win44%49% · Elo 55%49%· Elo 55%
Both teams to score: no44%46%46%
Over 3.5 goals29%29%29%
2 – Estrela win28%26% · Elo 20%26%· Elo 20%
X – draw27%25% · Elo 26%25%· Elo 26%
Under 1.5 goals23%24%24%
Attack vs defence
Arouca attack vs Estrela defenceattack1495defence1411+84 pts to the attack
Estrela attack vs Arouca defenceattack1453defence1465−12 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 8.5 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.560%60%
8.547%47%
9.535%32%
10.524%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Aroucawe expect 4.7, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Estrelawe expect 3.8, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 71%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 29%
We expect 22.6 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.535%56%
25.529%50%
26.524%42%
27.519%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Aroucawe expect 11.4, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 36%
Estrelawe expect 11.3, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 35%
Referee: 24.4 fouls per match on average (14 matches in our data)−0.8 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 58%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.568%78%
2.542%51%
3.521%31%
4.59%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Aroucawe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 33%
Estrelawe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 29%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Estrela: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Arouca: 18 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 11 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Arouca: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Estrela: 21 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Arouca

Estrela

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Arouca842211:714
10Estrela824214:1510
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Arouca vs Estrela?

Arouca 1-0 Estrela (half time 1-0).

Did the Arouca vs Estrela tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Corners: Under 9.5. The tip lost.

See also