Liga PortugalMatchday 8

Sp Braga 1-3 Sp Lisbon: prediction, tips and result

·

Sp Braga
1-02-11-21-00-0
1-3Full time(half time 1-0)
Sp Lisbon
2-21-12-04-03-1
Stadium:
Braga Municipal, Braga
Referee:
Joao Pedro Pinheiro

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Corners: Under 9.5Won60%

7.3 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 7.6 in the visitors', league average 9.3; under 9.5 corners in 4 of the hosts' last 6 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 7 (54% of league matches)

Other tips

  • Fouls: Under 25.5Won74%

    our numbers: 22.1 fouls against a league average of 25.5; referee Joao Pedro Pinheiro averages 24.2 fouls a match, league average 25.5

  • Shots on Target – Sp Lisbon: Over 3.5Lost63%

    Sp Lisbon: 5.7 shots on target a match, league average 3.8; our numbers for Sp Lisbon: 4.4 shots on target against a league average of 3.8

For the brave
Corners: Under 7.5Won35%

under 7.5 corners in 4 of the hosts' last 6 league matches and 4 of the visitors' last 7 (32% of league matches); 7.3 corners a match in the hosts' matches, 7.6 in the visitors', league average 9.3

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloSp Braga189031%28%Draw29%29%Sp Lisbon204441%44%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS53%56%O2.547%53%|exp. goals 1.3 : 1.5both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Sp Braga2:2Sp LisbonD
  2. Sp Lisbon1:1Sp BragaD
  3. Sp Lisbon1:1Sp BragaD
  4. Sp Braga2:4Sp LisbonL
  5. Sp Lisbon5:0Sp BragaL
Sp Braga's record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses3.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners8.9league 9.3under 9.5: 60%Expected corners: 8.9 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.won · ended 7
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.9league 4.8over 4.5: 53%Expected yellow cards: 4.9 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end over 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 26%.lost · ended 2
RefereeJ. Pedro Pinheiro+0.2 yellow cards vs average33 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)70%1X0:1coverageleague 77% · H2H 3/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.2 : 1.4total 2.6Attack/defence1.3 : 1.5total 2.8
Sp Braga : Sp Lisbon
Most likely scores
Market1-114%0-110%1-29%0-09%1-08%2-1—0-2—Attack/defence1-112%0-19%1-29%0-0—1-08%2-18%0-27%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-112%0-10-110%0-19%1-21-29%1-29%0-00-09%0-0—1-01-08%1-08%2-12-1—2-18%0-20-2—0-27%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals75%70%70%
Over 1.5 goals73%77%77%
12 – no draw72%74%74%
X2 – away team avoid defeat70%68%68%
1X – home team avoid defeat60%58%58%
Under 2.5 goals53%48%48%
Both teams to score: yes53%56%56%
Over 2.5 goals47%53%53%
Both teams to score: no47%44%44%
2 – Sp Lisbon win41%42% · Elo 44%42%· Elo 44%
1 – Sp Braga win31%32% · Elo 28%32%· Elo 28%
X – draw29%26% · Elo 29%26%· Elo 29%
Under 1.5 goals27%23%23%
Over 3.5 goals25%30%30%
Attack vs defence
Sp Braga attack vs Sp Lisbon defenceattack1583defence1630−47 pts to the attack
Sp Lisbon attack vs Sp Braga defenceattack1733defence1580+153 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 55%close to the league averageunderover 45%
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.558%60%
8.545%47%
9.533%32%
10.523%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sp Bragawe expect 3.8, league average 4.5 · chance of over 4.5: 34%
Sp Lisbonwe expect 4.4, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 63%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 74%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 26%
We expect 22.1 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.532%56%
25.526%50%
26.521%42%
27.517%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sp Bragawe expect 12.3, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 45%
Sp Lisbonwe expect 11.2, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 35%
Referee: 24.2 fouls per match on average (17 matches in our data)−3.2 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 53%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 47%
We expect 2.6 in this match, 3.0 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.572%78%
2.547%52%
3.526%32%
4.512%19%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Sp Bragawe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Sp Lisbonwe expect 1.3, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 37%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Sp Lisbon score 2.9 goals per game
  • Sp Lisbon: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
  • Sp Lisbon: unbeaten in 12 matches
  • Sp Lisbon concede a lot late on: 12 of 20 after the 75th minute Last 20 league matches. Usually about 25% of goals come after the 75th minute.
  • Sp Braga: 19 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Sp Lisbon: 20 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Sp Braga

Sp Lisbon

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Sp Lisbon853020:918
9Sp Braga73228:811
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon?

Sp Braga 1-3 Sp Lisbon (half time 1-0).

Did the Sp Braga vs Sp Lisbon tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Corners: Under 9.5. The tip won.

See also