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Liga PortugalMatchday 11

Nacional vs Academico Viseu: prediction, tips and stats

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Nacional
Alverca 1-3Famalicao 0-4Rio Ave 2-3Sp Braga 1-0Arouca 0-1
-:-Awaiting result
Academico Viseu
Rio Ave 2-1Sp Lisbon 2-1Estoril 2-1Estrela 2-0Guimaraes 2-1
Referee:
Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Cards – Nacional (yellow=1, red=2): Under 2.560%

Nacional: under 2.5 card points in 9 of their last 10 league matches, Academico Viseu's opponents collected under 2.5 card points in 7 of 10 (54% of league matches); 1.6 card points a match, Academico Viseu's opponents collected 2.1 card points on average, league average 2.6; scoring: yellow 1, red 2, second yellow 3 in total

Other tips

  • Fouls: Under 24.567%

    our numbers: 22.3 fouls against a league average of 25.3; 20.0 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 25.0 in the visitors', league average 25.3

  • Offsides – Academico Viseu: Under 1.570%

    Academico Viseu: under 1.5 offsides in 8 of their last 10 league matches, Nacional's opponents were caught offside under 1.5 times in 9 of 10 (60% of league matches); 1.1 offsides a match, Nacional's opponents were caught offside 0.7 times on average, league average 1.5

For the brave
Correct Score: 1:114%
How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2Elo

Nacional155033%43%Draw29%29%Academico Viseu153639%29%

Goalsattack/defence

BTTS52%52%O2.546%46%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.1

H2Hlast 5 meetings

  1. Nacional1:1Academico ViseuD
  2. Academico Viseu1:1NacionalD
  3. Nacional3:2Academico ViseuW
  4. Academico Viseu1:1NacionalD
  5. Nacional1:2Academico ViseuL
Nacional's record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss2.8 goals per match

Cornersleague cornersin line with the league

9.1league 9.3under 9.5: 57%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 9.5 corners.

Yellow cardsleague yellowsin line with the league

4.6league 4.7under 4.5: 52%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.7 on average in the league.In this league 49% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 24%.

Referee

P. Miguel Torres Ramalho0.0 yellow cards vs average26 matches

Dutching(several bets at once)

70%1X0:1coverageleague 77% · H2H 4/5

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams

Expected goals

Market1.2 : 1.3total 2.5Attack/defence1.4 : 1.1total 2.5
Nacional : Academico Viseu

Most likely scores

Market1-114%1-09%0-110%0-09%2-1—1-28%2-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-011%0-19%0-08%2-19%1-2—2-08%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-114%1-113%1-01-09%1-011%0-10-110%0-19%0-00-09%0-08%2-12-1—2-19%1-21-28%1-2—2-02-0—2-08%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Under 3.5 goals75%75%75%
Over 1.5 goals73%72%72%
12 – no draw72%73%73%
X2 – away team avoid defeat68%58%58%
1X – home team avoid defeat62%70%70%
Under 2.5 goals54%54%54%
Both teams to score: yes52%52%52%
Both teams to score: no48%49%49%
Over 2.5 goals46%46%46%
2 – Academico Viseu win39%31% · Elo 29%31%· Elo 29%
1 – Nacional win33%42% · Elo 43%42%· Elo 43%
X – draw29%27% · Elo 29%27%· Elo 29%
Under 1.5 goals27%28%28%
Over 3.5 goals25%25%25%

Attack vs defence

Nacional attack vs Academico Viseu defenceattack1435defence1420+15 pts to the attack
Academico Viseu attack vs Nacional defenceattack1440defence1424+16 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average

Under 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.2 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.557%60%
8.544%47%
9.532%31%
10.522%20%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Nacionalwe expect 4.4, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 45%
Academico Viseuwe expect 3.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 52%

Foulsleague average

Under 25.5 · 73%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 27%
We expect 22.2 in this match, 25.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.533%55%
25.527%49%
26.522%41%
27.517%35%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Nacionalwe expect 11.1, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 34%
Academico Viseuwe expect 11.7, league average 12.6 · chance of over 12.5: 39%
Referee: 25.9 fouls per match on average (19 matches in our data)−1.6 vs the league average

Offsidesleague average

Under 2.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.569%77%
2.543%49%
3.522%30%
4.510%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Nacionalwe expect 1.2, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Academico Viseuwe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 30%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Academico Viseu: 6 wins in a row in the league
  • Academico Viseu: 20 pts in the last 10 league matches, bookmakers expected about 10 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
  • Academico Viseu: newly promoted
  • Nacional: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Academico Viseu: 7 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Nacional

Academico Viseu

League position

#TeamPlayedWonDrawnLostGoalsPts
6Academico Viseu1062215:1220
17Nacional1021710:197
Full league table

See also