Liga PortugalMatchday 8

Rio Ave 3-2 Nacional: prediction, tips and result

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Rio Ave
2-00-40-43-30-1
3-2Full time(half time 1-1)
Nacional
0-41-30-22-30-1
Stadium:
Estadio dos Arcos, Vila do Conde
Referee:
Carlos Andre Fernandes Macedo

Our tips

Tips and chances as published: . A published tip never changes.

Main tip
Yellow Cards: Under 4.5Won68%

referee Carlos Andre Fernandes Macedo averages 3.4 yellow cards a match, league average 4.8; our numbers: 3.7 yellow cards against a league average of 4.8

Other tips

  • Fouls: Under 23.5Won73%

    our numbers: 20.4 fouls against a league average of 25.5; 20.7 fouls a match in the hosts' matches, 20.3 in the visitors', league average 25.5

  • Offsides: Under 2.5Won61%

    1.9 offsides a match in the hosts' matches, 1.4 in the visitors', league average 2.9; under 2.5 offsides in 5 of the hosts' last 7 league matches and 6 of the visitors' last 7 (49% of league matches)

  • Shots on Target – Rio Ave: Under 4.5Lost65%

    our numbers for Rio Ave: 3.9 shots on target against a league average of 4.4

For the brave
Yellow Cards: Under 3.5Won49%

referee Carlos Andre Fernandes Macedo averages 3.4 yellow cards a match, league average 4.8; our numbers: 3.7 yellow cards against a league average of 4.8

How our tips did

The match in numbers

1X2EloRio Ave157944%44%Draw28%28%Nacional154428%27%favourite won
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%54%O2.549%49%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.2both scored
H2Hlast 5 meetings
  1. Nacional4:0Rio AveL
  2. Rio Ave1:1NacionalD
  3. Nacional3:3Rio AveD
  4. Rio Ave2:1NacionalW
  5. Nacional2:0Rio AveL
Rio Ave's record: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.3under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.lost · ended 16
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.7league 4.8under 4.5: 68%Expected yellow cards: 3.7 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 18%.won · ended 3
RefereeC. Andre Fernandes Macedo−1.6 yellow cards vs average25 matches
Dutching(several bets at once)66%X21:0coverageleague 69% · H2H 4/5not covered

Prediction: result and goals

Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.5 : 1.1total 2.6Attack/defence1.4 : 1.2total 2.7
Rio Ave : Nacional
Most likely scores
Market1-113%1-010%2-19%0-1—0-08%2-08%1-2—Attack/defence1-113%1-010%2-19%0-18%0-07%2-0—1-28%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-113%1-01-010%1-010%2-12-19%2-19%0-10-1—0-18%0-00-08%0-07%2-02-08%2-0—1-21-2—1-28%
OutcomeMarketAttack/defence
Over 1.5 goals75%74%74%
Under 3.5 goals73%73%73%
1X – home team avoid defeat72%67%67%
12 – no draw72%73%73%
X2 – away team avoid defeat56%60%60%
Both teams to score: yes54%54%54%
Under 2.5 goals51%51%51%
Over 2.5 goals49%49%49%
Both teams to score: no46%46%46%
1 – Rio Ave win44%40% · Elo 44%40%· Elo 44%
X – draw28%27% · Elo 28%27%· Elo 28%
2 – Nacional win28%33% · Elo 27%33%· Elo 27%
Over 3.5 goals27%27%27%
Under 1.5 goals25%26%26%
Attack vs defence
Rio Ave attack vs Nacional defenceattack1428defence1422+6 pts to the attack
Nacional attack vs Rio Ave defenceattack1439defence1388+51 pts to the attack

1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.

Shots on target, fouls, offsides

Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 59%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 42%
We expect 8.1 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
7.555%60%
8.542%47%
9.530%32%
10.520%21%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Rio Avewe expect 3.9, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 35%
Nacionalwe expect 4.0, league average 3.9 · chance of over 3.5: 56%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 83%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 17%
We expect 20.4 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
24.522%56%
25.517%50%
26.513%42%
27.510%36%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Rio Avewe expect 10.6, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 28%
Nacionalwe expect 10.8, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 31%
Referee: 24.1 fouls per match on average (18 matches in our data)−2.9 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 61%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 39%
We expect 2.2 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.
LineChance of overLeague
1.565%78%
2.539%51%
3.519%31%
4.58%18%
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.
Each team on its own
Rio Avewe expect 1.0, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 27%
Nacionalwe expect 1.1, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 31%

Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.

Worth knowing before kick-off

  • Rio Ave concede 2.0 goals per game
  • Rio Ave matches average only 3.1 cards (league 5.0) Average cards of both teams in their last 10 league matches. Cards depend mostly on the referee.
  • Rio Ave score only 0.7 goals per game
  • Nacional: 5 defeats in a row
  • Rio Ave: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
  • Nacional: 22 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.

League form

Rio Ave

Nacional

League position

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
14Rio Ave82158:177
16Nacional81169:184
Full league table

Frequently asked questions

What was the result of Rio Ave vs Nacional?

Rio Ave 3-2 Nacional (half time 1-1).

Did the Rio Ave vs Nacional tip win?

Our pre-match tip: Yellow Cards: Under 4.5. The tip won.

See also