Liga PortugalMatchday 9
Nacional vs Sp Braga: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS47%53%O2.552%49%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Nacional1:2Sp BragaL
- Sp Braga0:1NacionalW
- Sp Braga1:0NacionalL
- Nacional0:3Sp BragaL
- Nacional1:2Sp BragaL
Nacional's record: 1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses2.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.1league 9.3under 9.5: 58%Expected corners: 9.1 in this match, 9.3 on average in the league.In this league 54% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.6league 4.8under 4.5: 51%Expected yellow cards: 4.6 in this match, 4.8 on average in the league.In this league 47% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 21%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market0.8 : 2.0total 2.8Attack/defence1.1 : 1.5total 2.6
Nacional : Sp BragaMost likely scores
Market0-213%1-110%0-112%1-210%0-38%0-0—1-0—Attack/defence0-29%1-113%0-111%1-29%0-3—0-08%1-08%
MarketAttack/defence0-20-213%0-29%1-11-110%1-113%0-10-112%0-111%1-21-210%1-29%0-30-38%0-3—0-00-0—0-08%1-01-0—1-08%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 87%73% | 73% |
| 12 – no draw | 79%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77%74% | 74% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71%73% | 73% |
| 2 – Sp Braga win | 66%47% · Elo 67% | 47%· Elo 67% |
| Both teams to score: no | 53%47% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52%49% | 49% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47%53% | 53% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 34%53% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29%27% | 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23%26% | 26% |
| X – draw | 21%26% · Elo 20% | 26%· Elo 20% |
| 1 – Nacional win | 13%27% · Elo 13% | 27%· Elo 13% |
Attack vs defence
Nacional attack vs Sp Braga defenceattack1442defence1574−132 pts to the attack
Sp Braga attack vs Nacional defenceattack1583defence1415+168 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 56%close to the league averageunderover 44%
We expect 8.2 in this match, 8.3 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.557%59%
8.544%46%
9.532%31%
10.521%21%
Each team on its own
Nacionalwe expect 4.0, league average 4.4 · chance of over 4.5: 37%
Sp Bragawe expect 4.2, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 58%
Foulsleague average
Under 25.5 · 70%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 30%
We expect 22.7 in this match, 25.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.24.536%56%
25.530%50%
26.525%42%
27.520%36%
Each team on its own
Nacionalwe expect 10.8, league average 12.8 · chance of over 12.5: 30%
Sp Bragawe expect 11.6, league average 12.7 · chance of over 12.5: 38%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 57%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 43%
We expect 2.4 in this match, 2.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.569%78%
2.543%51%
3.523%31%
4.510%18%
Each team on its own
Nacionalwe expect 1.1, league average 1.4 · chance of over 1.5: 32%
Sp Bragawe expect 1.2, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 34%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Nacional6 defeats in a rowat home: 3Went on 51%League 35%Model 66%Record 10
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Nacional concede 2.0 goals per game
- Nacional: 6 defeats in a row
- Nacional: 14 days since the last match, 0 matches in the last 14 days.
- Sp Braga: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sp Braga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 11 |
| 16 | Nacional | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9:18 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Nacional vs Sp Braga?
Sp Braga are the favourites. Chances: Nacional win 13%, draw 21%, Sp Braga win 66%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Nacional vs Sp Braga?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Nacional 0.8, Sp Braga 2.0). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 52%. Most likely score: 0-2.
Will both teams score in Nacional vs Sp Braga?
The chance that both teams score is 47%.
When is Nacional vs Sp Braga?
The Liga Portugal match kicks off 25 October 2026, 18:00 (UK time).