LaLigaMatchday 10
Alaves vs Malaga: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS50%51%O2.547%48%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.0
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Malaga0:3AlavesW
- Alaves1:0MalagaW
- Malaga1:2AlavesW
- Alaves1:1MalagaD
- Alaves3:2MalagaW
Alaves's record: 4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses2.8 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 9.7over 9.5: 52%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 50% of matches end over 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.5league 4.4under 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.6 : 0.9total 2.5Attack/defence1.6 : 1.0total 2.6
Alaves : MalagaMost likely scores
Market1-113%1-012%2-010%2-110%0-09%0-1—Attack/defence1-112%1-012%2-010%2-110%0-08%0-17%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-113%1-112%1-01-012%1-012%2-02-010%2-010%2-12-110%2-110%0-00-09%0-08%0-10-1—0-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 78%77% | 77% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 73%74% | 74% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%73% | 73% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53%52% | 52% |
| 1 – Alaves win | 52%51% · Elo 46% | 51%· Elo 46% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50%51% | 51% |
| Both teams to score: no | 50%50% | 50% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 47%49% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47%48% | 48% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%27% | 27% |
| X – draw | 26%26% · Elo 28% | 26%· Elo 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25%26% | 26% |
| 2 – Malaga win | 21%23% · Elo 26% | 23%· Elo 26% |
Attack vs defence
Alaves attack vs Malaga defenceattack1467defence1464+3 pts to the attack
Malaga attack vs Alaves defenceattack1393defence1494−101 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 50%close to the league averageunder 50%over
We expect 8.7 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.563%67%
8.550%53%
9.538%40%
10.527%31%
Each team on its own
Alaveswe expect 5.5, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 46%
Malagawe expect 3.3, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 41%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 24.1 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.559%55%
23.552%48%
24.545%43%
25.539%36%
Each team on its own
Alaveswe expect 12.1, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 53%
Malagawe expect 12.1, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 54%
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 53%close to the league averageunder 47%over
We expect 3.8 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.573%69%
3.553%48%
4.534%34%
5.519%24%
Each team on its own
Alaveswe expect 2.4, league average 2.1 · chance of over 2.5: 43%
Malagawe expect 1.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Malaga: no win in 8 matches
- Malaga: newly promoted
- Alaves: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Malaga: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:8 | 11 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Alaves vs Malaga?
Alaves are the favourites. Chances: Alaves win 52%, draw 26%, Malaga win 21%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Malaga?
Expected goals: 2.5 (Alaves 1.6, Malaga 0.9). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 47%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Malaga?
The chance that both teams score is 50%.
When is Alaves vs Malaga?
The LaLiga match kicks off 23 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).