LaLigaMatchday 9
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 4d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS52%54%O2.568%60%|exp. goals 2.2 : 0.9
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Sevilla0:1Real MadridW
- Real Madrid2:0SevillaW
- Sevilla0:2Real MadridW
- Real Madrid4:2SevillaW
- Real Madrid1:0SevillaW
Real Madrid's record: 5 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses2.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.7under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.7 on average in the league.In this league 51% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.5league 4.4under 4.5: 54%Expected yellow cards: 4.5 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 56% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 25%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market2.7 : 0.8total 3.5Attack/defence2.2 : 0.9total 3.1
Real Madrid : SevillaMost likely scores
Market2-011%3-010%2-19%1-08%1-1—3-18%Attack/defence2-011%3-08%2-110%1-09%1-19%3-17%
MarketAttack/defence2-02-011%2-011%3-03-010%3-08%2-12-19%2-110%1-01-08%1-09%1-11-1—1-19%3-13-18%3-17%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 91%85% | 85% |
| 12 – no draw | 87%80% | 80% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87%82% | 82% |
| 1 – Real Madrid win | 78%65% · Elo 77% | 65%· Elo 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68%60% | 60% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 53%62% | 62% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52%54% | 54% |
| Both teams to score: no | 48%46% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47%38% | 38% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32%40% | 40% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 22%35% | 35% |
| X – draw | 13%20% · Elo 15% | 20%· Elo 15% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13%18% | 18% |
| 2 – Sevilla win | 9%15% · Elo 8% | 15%· Elo 8% |
Attack vs defence
Real Madrid attack vs Sevilla defenceattack1679defence1505+174 pts to the attack
Sevilla attack vs Real Madrid defenceattack1471defence1600−129 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 57%close to the league averageunder 43%over
We expect 9.2 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.569%67%
8.557%53%
9.544%40%
10.533%31%
Each team on its own
Real Madridwe expect 5.7, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 49%
Sevillawe expect 3.8, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 53%
Foulsleague average
Over 23.5 · 52%close to the league averageunder 48%over
We expect 24.1 in this match, 23.7 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.22.559%55%
23.552%48%
24.545%43%
25.539%36%
Each team on its own
Real Madridwe expect 9.9, league average 11.8 · chance of over 11.5: 30%
Sevillawe expect 14.3, league average 11.9 · chance of over 11.5: 73%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 54%close to the league averageunderover 46%
We expect 3.5 in this match, 3.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.568%69%
3.546%48%
4.528%34%
5.515%24%
Each team on its own
Real Madridwe expect 2.0, league average 2.1 · chance of over 2.5: 34%
Sevillawe expect 1.4, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 42%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Real Madrid7 wins in a row at homeoverall: 1Went on 61%League 45%Model 78%Record 16
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Real Madrid score 2.4 goals per game
- Sevilla matches average only 7.0 corners (league 9.7) Average corners of both teams in their last 10 league matches.
- Real Madrid: 8 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Sevilla: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19:8 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:12 | 14 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Real Madrid are the favourites. Chances: Real Madrid win 78%, draw 13%, Sevilla win 9%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Expected goals: 3.5 (Real Madrid 2.7, Sevilla 0.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 68%. Most likely score: 2-0.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
The chance that both teams score is 52%.
When is Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
The LaLiga match kicks off 18 October 2026, 20:00 (UK time).