AllsvenskanMatchday 25
Elfsborg vs Malmo FF: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 9d 12hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS54%O2.554%50%|exp. goals 1.4 : 1.3
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Malmo FF1:2ElfsborgW
- Elfsborg2:2Malmo FFD
- Malmo FF2:1ElfsborgL
- Malmo FF2:1ElfsborgL
- Elfsborg3:1Malmo FFW
Elfsborg's record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses3.4 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.1league 10.2under 10.5: 57%Expected corners: 10.1 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.4league 3.3under 3.5: 56%Expected yellow cards: 3.4 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 8%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.4 : 1.4total 2.8Attack/defence1.4 : 1.3total 2.7
Elfsborg : Malmo FFMost likely scores
Model1-112%1-08%0-18%2-19%1-28%0-0—Attack/defence1-113%1-09%0-19%2-18%1-28%0-07%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%1-01-08%1-09%0-10-18%0-19%2-12-19%2-18%1-21-28%1-28%0-00-0—0-07%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78%74% | 74% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68%72% | 72% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 64%65% | 65% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 62%62% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54%50% | 50% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46%50% | 50% |
| 1 – Elfsborg win | 38%38% · Elo 42% | 38%· Elo 42% |
| 2 – Malmo FF win | 37%35% · Elo 32% | 35%· Elo 32% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32%28% | 28% |
| X – draw | 25%27% · Elo 26% | 27%· Elo 26% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22%26% | 26% |
Attack vs defence
Elfsborg attack vs Malmo FF defenceattack1523defence1552−29 pts to the attack
Malmo FF attack vs Elfsborg defenceattack1564defence1508+56 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 8.5 · 55%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 45%
We expect 8.3 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.558%64%
8.545%53%
9.533%40%
10.523%29%
Each team on its own
Elfsborgwe expect 4.3, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 43%
Malmo FFwe expect 3.7, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 31%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 57%close to the league averageunder 43%over
We expect 22.9 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.564%61%
21.557%54%
22.550%47%
23.544%38%
Each team on its own
Elfsborgwe expect 10.7, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 50%
Malmo FFwe expect 12.3, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 66%
Offsidesleague average
Over 2.5 · 66%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 34%over
We expect 3.4 in this match, 2.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.585%66%
2.566%44%
3.544%25%
4.526%13%
Each team on its own
Elfsborgwe expect 2.5, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 70%
Malmo FFwe expect 0.9, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 24%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Elfsborg: 22 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 16 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Elfsborg: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Malmo FF: 5 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Elfsborg | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 35:22 | 40 |
| 6 | Malmo FF | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 38:33 | 36 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Elfsborg win 38%, draw 25%, Malmo FF win 37%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
Expected goals: 2.8 (Elfsborg 1.4, Malmo FF 1.4). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 54%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
The Allsvenskan match kicks off 23 October 2026, 18:00 (UK time).