AllsvenskanMatchday 25
Mjallby vs Hammarby: prediction, tips and stats
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Our tips
Tip in 11d 13hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS51%O2.548%46%|exp. goals 1.1 : 1.4
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Hammarby3:0MjallbyL
- Hammarby1:2MjallbyW
- Mjallby3:1HammarbyW
- Hammarby3:0MjallbyL
- Mjallby3:0HammarbyW
Mjallby's record: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses3.2 goals per match
Cornersleague corners10.2league 10.2under 10.5: 56%Expected corners: 10.2 in this match, 10.2 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows3.2league 3.3under 3.5: 60%Expected yellow cards: 3.2 in this match, 3.3 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 3.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 8%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.1 : 1.5total 2.6Attack/defence1.1 : 1.4total 2.5
Mjallby : HammarbyMost likely scores
Model1-112%0-111%1-29%1-08%0-28%0-0—Attack/defence1-113%0-111%1-29%1-09%0-28%0-08%
ModelAttack/defence1-11-112%1-113%0-10-111%0-111%1-21-29%1-29%1-01-08%1-09%0-20-28%0-28%0-00-0—0-08%
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| 12 – no draw | 74%73% | 73% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74%75% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73%72% | 72% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 72%70% | 70% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 54%57% | 57% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52%54% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48%46% | 46% |
| 2 – Hammarby win | 46%43% · Elo 47% | 43%· Elo 47% |
| 1 – Mjallby win | 28%30% · Elo 28% | 30%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27%28% | 28% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26%25% | 25% |
| X – draw | 26%27% · Elo 25% | 27%· Elo 25% |
Attack vs defence
Mjallby attack vs Hammarby defenceattack1514defence1651−137 pts to the attack
Hammarby attack vs Mjallby defenceattack1669defence1570+99 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 65%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 35%over
We expect 9.9 in this match, 8.9 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.576%64%
8.565%53%
9.553%40%
10.541%29%
Each team on its own
Mjallbywe expect 3.5, league average 4.7 · chance of over 4.5: 28%
Hammarbywe expect 6.8, league average 4.3 · chance of over 4.5: 78%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 67%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 33%over
We expect 24.5 in this match, 21.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.573%61%
21.567%54%
22.561%47%
23.554%38%
Each team on its own
Mjallbywe expect 12.8, league average 10.9 · chance of over 10.5: 71%
Hammarbywe expect 12.0, league average 10.7 · chance of over 10.5: 63%
Offsidesleague average
Under 2.5 · 59%close to the league averageunderover 41%
We expect 2.3 in this match, 2.4 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.1.568%66%
2.541%44%
3.521%25%
4.59%13%
Each team on its own
Mjallbywe expect 1.0, league average 1.2 · chance of over 1.5: 26%
Hammarbywe expect 1.4, league average 1.3 · chance of over 1.5: 39%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Mjallby concede 2.2 goals per game
- Mjallby: no win in 7 matches
- Mjallby: only 6 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 12 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Mjallby: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Hammarby: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hammarby | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 49:21 | 43 |
| 12 | Mjallby | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 28:39 | 23 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mjallby vs Hammarby?
Hammarby are the favourites. Chances: Mjallby win 28%, draw 26%, Hammarby win 46%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Mjallby vs Hammarby?
Expected goals: 2.6 (Mjallby 1.1, Hammarby 1.5). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 48%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Mjallby vs Hammarby?
The Allsvenskan match kicks off 25 October 2026, 15:30 (UK time).