Super LigMatchday 9
Samsunspor vs Amedspor: prediction, tips and stats
·
Our tips
Tip in 10d 11hFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS55%O2.564%52%|exp. goals 1.6 : 1.2
H2Hhome side's goals firstnever met
Cornersleague corners9.3league 9.5under 9.5: 55%Expected corners: 9.3 in this match, 9.5 on average in the league.In this league 53% of matches end under 9.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.4league 4.4under 4.5: 55%Expected yellow cards: 4.4 in this match, 4.4 on average in the league.In this league 58% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 19%.
Refereeawaiting appointment
Prediction: result and goals
Modelno odds, our statistical modelAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Model1.5 : 1.8total 3.3Attack/defence1.6 : 1.2total 2.8
Samsunspor : AmedsporMost likely scores
Model1-111%1-0—2-17%1-29%2-0—0-1—2-27%0-26%Attack/defence1-112%1-010%2-19%1-27%2-08%0-17%2-2—0-2—
ModelAttack/defence1-11-111%1-112%1-01-0—1-010%2-12-17%2-19%1-21-29%1-27%2-02-0—2-08%0-10-1—0-17%2-22-27%2-2—0-20-26%0-2—
| Outcome | Model | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85%76% | 76% |
| 12 – no draw | 75%75% | 75% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 70%53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64%52% | 52% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 58%70% | 70% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 55%73% | 73% |
| 2 – Amedspor win | 45%27% · Elo 27% | 27%· Elo 27% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42%30% | 30% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36%48% | 48% |
| 1 – Samsunspor win | 30%47% · Elo 45% | 47%· Elo 45% |
| X – draw | 25%25% · Elo 27% | 25%· Elo 27% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15%24% | 24% |
Attack vs defence
Samsunspor attack vs Amedspor defenceattack1479defence1458+21 pts to the attack
Amedspor attack vs Samsunspor defenceattack1454defence1478−24 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Over 8.5 · 55%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 45%over
We expect 9.1 in this match, 8.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.7.568%61%
8.555%50%
9.543%37%
10.531%27%
Each team on its own
Samsunsporwe expect 4.7, league average 4.8 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Amedsporwe expect 4.6, league average 3.8 · chance of over 3.5: 66%
Foulsleague average
Under 24.5 · 54%likely fewer than usual in the leagueunderover 46%
We expect 24.2 in this match, 24.6 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.23.552%58%
24.546%52%
25.539%48%
26.533%41%
Each team on its own
Samsunsporwe expect 11.4, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 36%
Amedsporwe expect 12.7, league average 12.3 · chance of over 12.5: 50%
Offsidesleague average
Under 3.5 · 60%close to the league averageunderover 40%
We expect 3.2 in this match, 3.5 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.562%67%
3.540%44%
4.522%26%
5.511%15%
Each team on its own
Samsunsporwe expect 1.6, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 47%
Amedsporwe expect 1.5, league average 1.8 · chance of over 1.5: 45%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Samsunspor: 5 defeats in a row
- Amedspor: newly promoted
- Samsunspor: 6 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
- Amedspor: 7 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Amedspor | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17:9 | 14 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6:15 | 4 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Samsunspor vs Amedspor?
Amedspor are the favourites. Chances: Samsunspor win 30%, draw 25%, Amedspor win 45%. No odds for this match: chances from our statistical model.
How many goals will there be in Samsunspor vs Amedspor?
Expected goals: 3.3 (Samsunspor 1.5, Amedspor 1.8). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 64%. Most likely score: 1-1.
When is Samsunspor vs Amedspor?
The Super Lig match kicks off 24 October 2026, 17:00 (UK time).