Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union: prediction, tips and stats
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- Referee:
- Ricardo Fierro
Our tips
Tip in 18h 57mFor matches from 3 pm UK time we publish the tips at noon, for earlier ones 3 hours before kick-off.
The match in numbers
Goalsattack/defenceBTTS68%63%O2.566%61%|exp. goals 1.7 : 1.5
H2Hlast 5 meetings
- Philadelphia Union1:2Chicago FireW
- Chicago Fire0:3Philadelphia UnionL
- Philadelphia Union2:2Chicago FireD
- Philadelphia Union4:0Chicago FireL
- Chicago Fire0:1Philadelphia UnionL
Chicago Fire's record: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses3.0 goals per match
Cornersleague corners9.8league 10.0under 10.5: 61%Expected corners: 9.8 in this match, 10.0 on average in the league.In this league 57% of matches end under 10.5 corners.
Yellow cardsleague yellows4.0league 4.1under 4.5: 63%Expected yellow cards: 4.0 in this match, 4.1 on average in the league.In this league 60% of matches end under 4.5 yellow cards.Chance of a red card in this match: 19%.
RefereeR. Fierro−0.5 yellow cards vs average10 matches
Prediction: result and goals
Marketbookmakers' odds with the margin removedAttack/defenceour attack and defence ratings of the teams
Expected goals
Market1.7 : 1.7total 3.4Attack/defence1.7 : 1.5total 3.2
Chicago Fire : Philadelphia UnionMost likely scores
Market1-110%2-18%1-28%2-27%1-05%0-1—Attack/defence1-111%2-19%1-28%2-27%1-07%0-16%
MarketAttack/defence1-11-110%1-111%2-12-18%2-19%1-21-28%1-28%2-22-27%2-27%1-01-05%1-07%0-10-1—0-16%
| Outcome | Market | Attack/defence |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86%82% | 82% |
| 12 – no draw | 76%76% | 76% |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68%63% | 63% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66%61% | 61% |
| 1X – home team avoid defeat | 63%66% | 66% |
| X2 – away team avoid defeat | 61%59% | 59% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55%61% | 61% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45%39% | 39% |
| 1 – Chicago Fire win | 39%41% · Elo 38% | 41%· Elo 38% |
| 2 – Philadelphia Union win | 37%35% · Elo 34% | 35%· Elo 34% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34%39% | 39% |
| Both teams to score: no | 32%37% | 37% |
| X – draw | 24%24% · Elo 28% | 24%· Elo 28% |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14%18% | 18% |
Attack vs defence
Chicago Fire attack vs Philadelphia Union defenceattack1565defence1579−14 pts to the attack
Philadelphia Union attack vs Chicago Fire defenceattack1598defence1513+85 pts to the attack
1500 = league average, +100 pts = 1.2x the goals scored (attack) or 1.2x fewer conceded (defence). A description of both teams' strength turned into goals, not a tip: the model knows nothing of line-ups or motivation.
Shots on target, fouls, offsides
Shots on targetleague average
Under 9.5 · 53%close to the league averageunderover 47%
We expect 9.4 in this match, 9.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.8.559%55%
9.547%44%
10.535%33%
11.525%25%
Each team on its own
Chicago Firewe expect 4.8, league average 5.1 · chance of over 5.5: 35%
Philadelphia Unionwe expect 4.7, league average 4.1 · chance of over 4.5: 50%
Foulsleague average
Over 21.5 · 69%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 31%over
We expect 24.8 in this match, 21.2 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.20.575%53%
21.569%46%
22.563%40%
23.556%35%
Each team on its own
Chicago Firewe expect 11.2, league average 10.8 · chance of over 10.5: 55%
Philadelphia Unionwe expect 12.1, league average 10.5 · chance of over 10.5: 64%
Referee: 24.3 fouls per match on average (32 matches in our data)+2.9 vs the league average
Offsidesleague average
Over 3.5 · 51%likely more than usual in the leagueunder 49%over
We expect 3.7 in this match, 3.1 on average in the league.LineChance of overLeague
Both teams combined. Main line in bold.2.571%59%
3.551%39%
4.532%20%
5.518%11%
Each team on its own
Chicago Firewe expect 1.7, league average 1.7 · chance of over 1.5: 51%
Philadelphia Unionwe expect 2.0, league average 1.5 · chance of over 1.5: 59%
Counts cover 90 minutes, extra time excluded. Bookmakers settle on the league's official statistics, which can differ from ours by one.
Streaks before the match
- Chicago Fire9 matches in a row with BTTS at homeoverall: 2Went on 58%League 64%Model 68%Record 19
- Philadelphia Union7 wins in a rowaway: 33rd longest in the league since 2004Went on 58%League 28%Model 37%
- Philadelphia Union13 matches unbeatenaway: 5Went on 78%League 54%Model 61%Record 19
Worth knowing before kick-off
- Philadelphia Union score 3.1 goals per game
- Philadelphia Union: 8 of 10 matches over 2.5 goals
- Philadelphia Union: 7 wins in a row
- Philadelphia Union: 26 pts in 10 matches, bookmakers expected about 19 Sum of the points bookmakers expected before each of these matches (from the odds, without the margin). It describes the past, it is not a forecast.
- Chicago Fire: 4 days since the last match, 2 matches in the last 14 days.
- Philadelphia Union: 4 days since the last match, 1 match in the last 14 days.
League form
League position
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 51:40 | 48 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 56:45 | 42 |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
It is an evenly matched game. Chances: Chicago Fire win 39%, draw 24%, Philadelphia Union win 37%. Chances from bookmaker odds with the margin removed.
How many goals will there be in Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
Expected goals: 3.4 (Chicago Fire 1.7, Philadelphia Union 1.7). Chance of over 2.5 goals: 66%. Most likely score: 1-1.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
The chance that both teams score is 68%.
When is Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
The MLS match kicks off 15 October 2026, 01:30 (UK time).
Who is the referee for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
The referee is Ricardo Fierro. In 10 matches in our data they showed 3.7 yellow cards a match on average.